FTOPS Hand

goodluck2me · #1 02-20-2007, 02:25 PM

FTOPS $315 ROund of Each tourney, $150K Guaranteed. i have history of stealing with the BB, i am his SB, we played a pretty big pot early on when i flat called then re-raised him with a raggy Ace in holdem. we both hit trips and got it all in i had him covered. this was about an hour ago and we havent played a hand since. He doesnt seem liek much of an over pair and has stacked others with TPTK ND in a few hands, but at the same time hasnt played all that many of them. folded to me blinds are 100-200 i have c4,000K, he covers. av is about 6K at this satge IIRC. i have AhAd7s5s. i pot it he calls. flop is Th8c2h. Whats my line?

Troll_Inc · #2 02-20-2007, 06:54 PM

Assuming your opponent calls with any random hand and the flop is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and your opponent will fold with less than 50% chance to win the hand and push all in with >50% chance to win the hand, then...

If you bet pot with the intention of pushing all in...
I estimate that 64% of the time you will win T1200 for an EV of +T768.

36% of the time you will push and BB will push back. This will cost you T3400 and you will have T1292 equity, for a net (0.36)(2108)=-T759

If my above calculations are correct, it looks like you are pretty much pissing in a vacuum with all in push.

If you think that your opponent will go after a pot that you are favored in if you check it to him, then check it to him with the intention of pushing all in.

Or you could just check call all the way home.

Or you could randomize your play and flip a coin. Heads push all in, tails play more passively.

goodluck2me · #3 02-21-2007, 12:28 AM

i potted it as i was short enough stacked at the time and felt i had enough folding equity against him, he pushed all in i was committed and called. he`d a bare T933. turn Q river J... sina ara. wasnt too disappointed as i thought he shouldnt have pushed, but when i look at that equity chart you drew up i see it was -ev to pot it there. i thought at the time check-calling gave him too much scope to improve, and couldnt call much of a turn bet, so i asked the question.

Troll_Inc · #4 02-21-2007, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i potted it as i was short enough stacked at the time and felt i had enough folding equity against him, he pushed all in i was committed and called. he`d a bare T933. turn Q river J... sina ara. wasnt too disappointed as i thought he shouldnt have pushed, but when i look at that equity chart you drew up i see it was -ev to pot it there. i thought at the time check-calling gave him too much scope to improve, and couldnt call much of a turn bet, so i asked the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

20% is an awkward amount to put in preflop even if you are raising with other hands. I'm guessing you'd make the same raise with other big pairs and big cards...still same result.

Due to your stack size, I think you'd be better off here just flat calling preflop. If he raises behind you preflop then you can reraise and get more of your stack in where it should then be +EV for you. If he just checks preflop, then I'd pretty much bet pot on any flop, and then go from there.

TheRempel · #5 02-21-2007, 02:03 AM

That is awful advice. So if he bets any random flop you fold?

grizy · #6 02-21-2007, 02:23 AM

Troll Inc. read the unmentionable's book and won't risk his stack unless he knows he's ahead.

Troll_Inc · #7 02-21-2007, 02:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That is awful advice. So if he bets any random flop you fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

In which instance, where you raise preflop or flat call preflop?

And no, I don't think I'm folding too often. You are SB and villain is BB. Both times, I'm suggesting betting out - SB bets first on the flop, no?

In the case where you limped preflop and then bet T400 (pot) out and he come over the top, there would be some (not many*) flops and opponents I could get away from. And depending on the opponent, if he were likely to autobet if checked to (pre or postflop) the c/r would be better because you'll see a wider range of crap that BB will put in with there.

*anyone who plays PLO tournaments knows how bad the play is. Someone who is actually half decent stands out like a sore thumb.

Slonye6 · #8 02-21-2007, 05:36 AM

Your hand analysis, Troll, seems to me to have way too many 'If this, and assuming this, and when this happens, and the stars align, etc etc etc.' to have any practical value.

But I have nothing more productive to add at this time, so I guess the joke's on me.