5/10 280BB deep btm set vs TAG

[fslexcduck]

i don't have specific numbers on button btu i've been playing only 2 tables while watching 24 so i have a pretty good read. he's definitely the tightest one at the table, doesn't seem overly aggro. what do you think of my 3-bet here? does 3-betting here suggest that i should fold to the push this deep? i think there is a very strong case either way. i realize he can shove some draws, do you think he is folding JT here to my 3-bet? would he just call with it ever?

i have 2800, button covers. utg raises to 40, i call with 55, button calls, sb calls.


flop (130): J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb checks, utg checks, i bet 110, button makes it 350, i make it 1000, button shoves 1800 more, i do what?

[Eagles]

I hate 4betting if your folding to a shove. I probably just call his 3bet.

[Hoopster81]

I play it the same and call the shove

[Requin]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10,890 games 0.005 secs 2,178,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Th 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.713% 67.71% 00.00% 7374 0.00 { JJ-TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, KdQd, Td9d }
Hand 1: 32.287% 32.29% 00.00% 3516 0.00 { 5c5s }


---

9,900 games 0.468 secs 21,153 games/sec

Board: Jd Th 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.202% 71.20% 00.00% 7049 0.00 { JJ-TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, KdQd }
Hand 1: 28.798% 28.80% 00.00% 2851 0.00 { 5c5s }


I don't see his range being much tighter than the top one, unless you don't think he is loose enough to raise 98s UTG.

[TheWorstPlayer]

call. well played.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't see his range being much tighter than the top one, unless you don't think he is loose enough to raise 98s UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's not the PFR, he's BN who overcalled preflop. So sure he can have JJ/TT. But he can have a bunch of draws and probably JT, too...

[Requin]

Oh you're right. I guess we should use the top range then as the tightest he can have, and we are still getting the odds.

[fslexcduck]

requin - he overcalled preflop - shouldn't your range include a lot more 98s/97s/87s even and less AKdd and JJ and TT? pokerstove also assumes even distribution of JJ/TT/98s, when I think he reraises JJ after two people a lot more often than not, whereas he calls with 98s in position very often. how can you work that in, if you can? bascially i think pokerstove kind of sucks for this level of discussion.

[Go_Blue88]

i lean towards folding b/c i don't think he'd play lots of draws this way--pretty much only Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which you're not even that far ahead of. My basis for this is that you said he's really tight.

So the only hand you're far ahead of is JT which he might play this way, and you're away behind 1010, JJ, which he'd most likely play like this.

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
i lean towards folding b/c i don't think he'd play lots of draws this way--pretty much only Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which you're not even that far ahead of. My basis for this is that you said he's really tight.

So the only hand you're far ahead of is JT which he might play this way, and you're away behind 1010, JJ, which he'd most likely play like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
JJ is pretty unlikly because of preflop. I think JT is more likely than JJ and TT. And think he also plays 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] like this. Whick makes this a call for me.