No Value River Action

NegativeEV · #1 02-10-2006, 02:04 PM

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t1150)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t785)
MP3 (t945)
Hero (t740)
CO (t645)
Button (t775)
SB (t785)
BB (t575)

Preflop: Hero is in CO+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t15, MP3 calls t15, Hero calls t15, CO calls t15, Button folds, SB calls t5, BB checks

Flop: (t90) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets t100, CO calls t100, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds

Turn: (t290) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t250, CO calls t250

River: (t790) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t375 (All-in), CO folds

 I think the river here is somewhat interesting. Up to the river is pretty basic (get value from top pair or two pair, and make a flush pay an incorrect price on their draw).

By the river, I can generally put villian on one of four types of hands (this is an 800 chip SnG and I'm confident in these hand ranges):

1.) Flush draw- likely
2.) Any king- possible to likely
3.) Any queen- possible
4.) Two pair- possible, but I expect a raise on turn

During the hand, I reasoned that I would get called with a river push if villian had any King or any Queen, and I was willing to go broke if he filled, so I pushed for value.

In retrospect, I think the push was wrong. I think I get MORE value, on average, if I check the river after a pause/thought. If I look at villians possible holdings I find:

1.) If villian has a flush draw, which I think is likely, I will get no value with a push, but there is a chance that villian may bluff if I check to him on this river. I think a flush draw is his most likely holding. This argues for checking river.

2.) If villian has a K and has played the hand this way, I WILL get called on the river if I push, but villian will probably not bet if I check. This argues for a push (although villian MAY bet if I check even with just a naked K).

3.) If villian has any Queen, he will either call my push OR bet himself if I check. Check and Push are equal.

4.) If villian has filled I'm busted either way.

So... I am convinced that giving my opponent the chance to bluff the river on a busted flush draw (which I view as the most likely hand) makes checking the river the best play with the most value. Although I WOULD get called by worse hands with a river bet, those worse hands (specifically the QQQ and possibly even a strong K) would ALSO bet if I checked, so I don't miss as much value by checking as I do with betting and taking a flush draws opportunity to bluff.

Anyone see or think differently about this hand?

chisness · #2 02-10-2006, 02:07 PM

I bet this is a flush draw and would probably check, but I almost never see a bluff bet by missed draw there.

NegativeEV · #3 02-10-2006, 02:11 PM

I agree, you won't get a bluff from a flush draw the majority of the time, but with that board, what can villian put me on that I check the river? A river check, especially after a pause from hero, really looks scared of the QQQ to a lot of typical villians. I think villian will have the thought process of "I can't win this big pot if I check behind and this guy is scared- I PUSH" enough to make a check more profitable than a bet. I see missed draws bluff the river plenty to believe this to be true, and this board is good for a villian bluff.

jhub30 · #4 02-10-2006, 02:14 PM

I must say one of my favorite plays is checking the river to induce a bluff from a busted draw. However, I push this. Villain has put in half of his stack & has basically committed himself. If he folds the river he is a donk (he should have folded earlier if he wasn't going all the way). I think a push offers him nice odds and is the best play here. You're second guessing yourself for making what was probably the best play.

chisness · #5 02-10-2006, 02:20 PM

I agree that that's best, was just pointing out that they typically instacheck and don't even consider betting (at least at that level).

NegativeEV · #6 02-10-2006, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I must say one of my favorite plays is checking the river to induce a bluff from a busted draw. However, I push this. Villain has put in half of his stack & has basically committed himself. If he folds the river he is a donk (he should have folded earlier if he wasn't going all the way). I think a push offers him nice odds and is the best play here. You're second guessing yourself for making what was probably the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you expand your thought process on why pushing is the best value play here? In the OP I reasoned through why I thought checking would have more value given likely hand ranges for villian. Are you saying that a king is more likely holding for villian and that on average I miss more value from them calling but not betting the King themselves? Any other possible holding of villian that he would call with he would also bet (QQQ is betting if I check)..... I'm just trying to better understand your thought process.

jhub30 · #7 02-10-2006, 02:29 PM

Unless he is a complete donk I push. You played the hand sp you know a lot better than I would if he was a donk. People don't call these bets on draws (or at all if they aren't willing to put it all in on the river) unless they are complete donks.

bad_egg · #8 02-10-2006, 02:53 PM

I like checking the river here, and giving them an opportunity to bet. I also like betting half of your turn bet--- 125... it looks weak, you still won't get a call from a busted draw though (but, i think is better than checking and letting them see your cards for free), and you'll can get a call from a weaker hand than yours.

*edit-- I don't mind pushing either, and do it here frequently... I generally think that there are a lot of good ways to play a hand, and the only thing I concentrate on is making sure I do them all.

rvg72 · #9 02-10-2006, 02:58 PM

In a situation like this I often like putting in a small river bet to 1) encourage him to make one last call and 2) encourage him to come over top with a reraise.

In this case, the CO has 280 chips left so I probably bet about 80 which gives him room to make an all-in reraise which he would think had some nice fold equity.

Pushing isn't bad either since he may think it is a desperation move and call with lesser holding.

I'm not a big fan of a check here since it almost always ends up being checked by the CO. A lot depends on the players aggression - the more aggressive he is then he better this play becomes but I still prefer the small bet.

Welcome back - I'm looking forward to more post flop hands from you.

rvg

45suited · #10 02-10-2006, 03:03 PM

Good to have you back. You are one of my favorite all time posters. That said, I think you left out an important possiblity for the villain's likely holdings.

Unless the guy is a total idiot (always possible), the only hand that I think plays this way and does not call the river is a pair + flush draw. Specifically 9dTd or 9dJd. Possibly Ad9d.

On the flop, these would be likely hands that would call, hoping for overcalls.

On the turn, he still felt like he had enough outs to continue with the hand. Again, only an idiot would call the turn with just a flush draw.

On the river, because of the possibility of this hand (which I think is what he had, based upon his fold), I like the bet.

You will get called by a K and possibly by a pair + flush draw possibility more often than you will induce a bluff from a busted flush draw, which, based upon his call of your sizeable turn bet, I would not have put him on. I see this is an 800 chip game, probably a 33, right? On a 33, a mere flush draw would be less likely than on a 22, so I bet the river.

Also, the #1 mistake that I see from my opponents is that they call too much. If I am in a situation where I think it's close between betting and checking to induce a bluff, I like the bet, since it plays into their biggest weakness. I think that you'll get called by a K and that a pair + flush draw will give you a crying call often as well.