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Old 02-10-2007, 03:06 PM
NJHobo NJHobo is offline
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Default Reads, Odds and Protecting Chips/Money

I had a situation in a nl hold'em tournament recently where I had an A-8, the flop was 8, 3, 5 rainbow. So I had top pair and a top kicker. My opponent went all in. From previous play and some tells I knew I had him beat so I called. He had an A-10. He hits his 10 on 4th or 5th street and I lose 25% of my stack.

I have had a lot of similar reads where I know I am ahead, make the call and the other player hits a card and criples me or causes a major lose of chips/money.

What else should I be considering when I make these calls. The math says in the long-run I should win these situations but recently I am outplaying people only to lose.

Should I not be putting my money/chips at risk unless I have a much larger advantage? Should I just ride the wave in these situations and let long-run odds work?

Reason I am asking is, I think my poker game is flawed in many ways but in this area being the most obvious to me. I am trying to figure out if I should be protecting my chip stacks more and in cash games protecting my bank role.

Thanks.
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Old 02-10-2007, 03:17 PM
AKQJ10 AKQJ10 is offline
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Default Re: Reads, Odds and Protecting Chips/Money

You need to learn a lot more about variance. I highly suggest that you read Ed Miller's writing on the subject -- particularly the last chapter of Getting Started in Hold 'em and some of the things on his website, http://notedpokerauthority.com/ .

You should also visit the Beginners forum. You'll find a lot of people there who are interesting in helping you with these issues.
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