what percentage of poker players are winning players in the long run?

jvidro1986 · #1 01-30-2007, 11:02 PM

i have heard many different answers on this subject, and want to know what you think. What percentage of poker players are winning players in the long run

Troll_Inc · #2 01-31-2007, 01:28 AM

2.78% of poker players are longterm* winning players, i.e. they go 20,000 hands or a years worth of poker and winners with a 95% confidence interval over 0.

*I'm a lifetime blackjack winner. I've played 3 times in casinos and had 2 out of 3 winning sessions.

Red_Diamond · #3 01-31-2007, 06:06 AM

Hmm. I didn't know in that detail. I'm curious though how they arrived at that data for the 20k or year for 2.78% figures. Was this taken from poker-site reccords?

The rule of thumb I have repeatedly read about is that only 10% of poker players are winning players.

r3vbr · #4 02-01-2007, 03:45 AM

5% is the answer

Ninja_Fish · #5 02-01-2007, 07:13 AM

I thought the answer was 42... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

lamboruns · #6 02-02-2007, 08:48 AM

I would venture a guess that in THEORY 51 percent COULD be winners...i would think it depends on how much u play..people that play an average of 8 hours a day are going to be a higher percentage than rec players obviously...over all i say 2 % big longterm winners...another 5-10% small winners and or break even players

T50_Omaha8 · #7 02-02-2007, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would venture a guess that in THEORY 51 percent COULD be winners

[/ QUOTE ]
In theory 99.9999% of poker players could be winners.

HitNRunPoster · #8 02-02-2007, 06:56 PM

In my experience, my ability to win is an equation based on how many drinks I've had, how hot the waitresses are, and low long it's been since I've gotten laid.

Paul2432 · #9 02-04-2007, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i have heard many different answers on this subject, and want to know what you think. What percentage of poker players are winning players in the long run

[/ QUOTE ]

This question can mean two different things.

1) At any given moment, what percentage of players are winners?

or

2) Over a long period of time, out of all the player that played poker, how many are winners?

Because most winning players keep playing and most losing players quit playing, the answer to the two questions will be very different. I believe the answer to the first might be 50% or more, while the answer to the second is much less than 1%.

Consider a multi-tabling pro who 8-tables for 1000 hours per year, or 8000 table-hours per year. That is equivalent to one table continuously. Let's say this player plays 5/10. Over the course of the year, the rake and winnings of the winning player will be close to $1,000,000. How many players do you think it takes to lose $1,000,000? I'd say around 500.

Paul

thecoolhand · #10 02-04-2007, 04:17 PM

How is it possible that the number is so low?

Most people seem to play smart poker, in which case the percentage should be around 50%. Throw in a few donkeys, drunks, and players on tilt and that might bring the number down to, say, 40%, but not 3%.

Are we wasting our time with poker? Is it a lost cause from the start?

Peter