to take a free card or not

[wackjob]

15/30 6-max, playing 4-handed:

UTG limps, I limp OTB w/ J823r, both blinds are in.

FLOP: J97r

UTG bets, everyone calls.

TURN: A(no flush draws)

checked to me, do you bet here?
straight draw, nut lo draw, 2ndpair/NK, I think free card is looking like a good idea on review, yet I don't mind folding out some other hands who I might be ahead of who are drawing.

[Buzz]

Wackjob - If you could bet and win the whole pot with the bet, then betting woule be the preferred action.

Will all three opponents fold to your bet here at least one time out of four? If so, then you have a good bet.

You know your opponents better than I do, but that seems unrealistic to me since all three of your opponents are still in the hand and put in bets on the two previous betting rounds.

The conservative approach is to take the free card. Do you have a conservative image? If so, you might get away with a bluff here if nobody has anything. but if you get caught, as is most likely, then you'll lose your conservative image.

If you don't have a conservative image, take the free card.

Buzz

[bbartlog]

You want everyone to fold here if you bet, or I guess if no one else has 23xx then having everyone call would be +EV as well. But I don't think either is a likely outcome. I would take the free card.

[gochiefs19]

Definitely bet here. Since nobody raised pre, there's a high likelihood that only 1-2 aces are in play and assuming no one slowplayed a set or straight over both streets. Also you can be fairly sure no one has A23. Ideally, you'd like to push the naked ace out and have similar low hands call. Against another 23xx, you're very likely ahead so go ahead and take the lead.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I bet, b/c it's possible that no one has an Ace.

[(jethro)]

I'd probably check the turn, if you get called you are beaten by either an ace or two pair. You are forced to bet the river whatever comes if you get one caller. This is dangerous because you don't know if you are beat. The reason I check is because I don't want to be in a position where I have to double bluff a pot. If you get any low card that doesn't double the board on the river you may get multiple callers with worse lows than you and you will make money without having to risk money by trying to bluff the turn. If you make your straight you may get callers with just two pair. There is not enough money in the pot for you to attempt a double bluff and too many people in there with too much possibility. Double bluffs are fine when it is checked to you by two players on a board like KcKh9s and you check behind and then turn comes 5s and it is checked to you again, you can bet and if you are called than you can be pretty certain he has picked up a flush draw. If anything other than a spade comes on the river you are pretty much guranteed to succesfully double bluff.

Your sitution does not call for a double bluff based on number of people in the pot and complexity of the board.

CardAcademy.com

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet, b/c it's possible that no one has an Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]Ralph - It's impossible to know if someone has an ace here or not.

If you take the eight known cards out of a deck, shuffle up and deal out twelve cards as three four-card hands, then roughly three times out of four (101270/135751 as calculated) nobody will have an ace.

But that doesn’t mean much here.

Wackjob is getting conflicting signals from his opponents. On the one hand, nobody folded to Wackjob’s bet after the flop. But on the other hand, nobody is being very aggressive either.

This is, after all, a 15/30 six max game with only four players. You’d think most individuals playing in this game would have decent card sense. However, it’s certainly possible Wackjob’s three opponents include one or more poor players.

All three of these opponents check/called the flop and now have all checked the turn. This betting pattern often indicates everybody was on a draw of some sort after the flop, and, if so, is still on a draw, and now additionally may have picked up a low draw.

There are also other possibilities. For example, someone could be slow playing. But what hand would be worth slow playing after a rainbow jack-nine-seven flop? A jack high straight? A set of jacks?

The best possible flopped hand would be a jack-high straight, but a jack high straight is not usually strong enough to slow play. You’d think somebody would be betting or check/raising with a jack high straight.

You’d also think somebody would be betting a flopped set of jacks, or any flopped set, or maybe even two pairs. But maybe someone with a flopped set is wary of betting into the possible flopped straight.

Or one or more of Wackjob’s opponents could either be trying to be cute or simply playing poorly.

Another possibility is maybe someone who we might think should bet is counting on Wackjob to bet the hand for him or is wary of betting and then getting raised.

I wouldn’t think anybody at this level would have been chasing a back-door low after this flop, but you never know.

At any rate, there are lots of various possibilities, but to me, the betting pattern most logically looks as though everyone is on some kind of draw, perhaps for a straight, or even for a full house, with a set or two pairs, hoping for the board to pair and wary of betting because a straight was already possible on the flop.

Meanwhile Wackjob is on a draw too.

The river card will determine who wins the hand.

A jack on the river seems Wackjob’s best chance to scoop.
However, if the river is a jack, the probability one of Wackjob’s opponents holds the fourth jack is 11480/123410 or about 9.3% and if an opponent’s hand does contain a jack, it’s probably with a better kicker.

Wackjob could also catch a ten on the river and make the third nut straight (after KQXY and Q8XY). Wackjob would also catch one of fifteen low cards that would make his deuce-trey combination the nuts for the low half of the pot.

If Wackjob had good enough odds of making a winning draw, and if Wackjob could get enough opponents to call a bet, then Wackjob would have favorable odds to bet. But Wackjob doesn’t have good enough odds of making a clear winning draw (although Wackjob might still eke out a win with a third rate hand, or might end up with half the pot for low, although the odds are against that). Wackjob simply does not have favorable odds to bet. Too many of his favorable outs are only for half the pot.

Or if Wackjob had a good chance to steal the pot with a bet here, the bet would be worthwhile. That might work if Wackjob has a very tight image and a reputation for having the goods when he bets and if Wackjob's opponents are all capable of folding. But we don’t know Wackjob's image and reputation, and we don’t know his opponents.

It’s impossible for us to know whether an opponent has an ace or not. But one way ot the other, although an ace is certainly a key card from Wackjob’s perspective, there are other issues involved.

I’d tend to just check and wait to see what happens on the river. I don’t think Wackjob has favorable odds to bet and I don’t think he’ll steal the pot with a bet either.

Buzz