2 Pair - Berate me for ignoring a read

[22pajo]

Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB caps</font>, Hero calls.
<font color="blue">villain played too many hands and usually passively pre and post flop so his flop c/r lead me to believe he had flopped a made hand but despite the read i bet agressively on the flop. After he caps i'm calling hoping to hit a full house</font>

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.
<font color="blue"> i'm happy enough with the turn call after picking up a FD </font>

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero ???

Is the pot big enough to justify a call here with 2 Pair?
Was even the blind steal preflop worth it with QTo?

[DrModern]

The blind steal pre is not bad. When he check-raises the flop, there are still enough hands that you beat (i.e. Kx) that you can definitely call. Given your read, doing so might be slightly better than 3-betting. When he caps the flop, I expect him to have J9 or AJ a lot, but maybe also KQ or KT.

The turn call is fine. Not sure you're good 10% of the time on the river here given the flop action. It's close between calling and folding, though I tend to think folding is superior.

[22pajo]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure you're good 10% of the time on the river here given the flop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do i have to be good here 10% of the time?

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not sure you're good 10% of the time on the river here given the flop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do i have to be good here 10% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

9.25-1 = ~10%

[22pajo]

[ QUOTE ]

9.25-1 = ~10%

[/ QUOTE ]

So what estimate do you give my winning chances?

[Absolution]

Think of a range of hands he could play this way and work it out.

[threads13]

I think I just call this guy's flop c/r. With bottom two-pair and a drawy board, a lot of turn cards can hurt you. On the turn you have a 2nd nut FD and a draw to a FH. I am not ever folding this river though.

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not ever folding this river though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even given the flop cap? Perhaps if you just called the flop check-raise a river call would be in order, but as played?

[dlorc]

When he caps that flop I estimate your chances of winning this hand at about the same odds as you hitting another Q or T [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think calling the flop is a better approach than threebetting and c/c the turn, you can open fold the river if he leads again.

[seano34]

Grunch

The C/R and cap indicates serious strength on the coordinated flop, esp. as you have read him to be passive post flop, meaning he probably has at least two pair so he could have

QT,KQ,KT,AJo or KK-TT(though I think he would have re-raised you pre-flop with these pairs) so at the best you are chopping with him I think.

You have odds to call with your 13 outs on the Turn, but he river is a clear fold.

If his most likely hands based on card distribution are AJo,KQ/KT, KK/QQ/TT then QT - his least likely hand is still QT which is the only one you will chop with, but with rake you are losing money anyway as there is no dead money in the pot here.

You have to fold the river.