5-10 deep - fold full house against some foxwoods regular?

[McStinky]

The villian in this hand is a guy that I think usually plays in the 10-25 game. He is a very young-looking and heavy-set guy with really short blonde hair. I don't get down to Foxwoods very often, so I don't know the people too well. He was at my table for about an hour before this hand came up, and from what I could tell he was a decent player who liked to get in and mix it up. I was a total unknown to him, but I should point out that I am a young player in case that may affect how he views me.

For this hand, effective stacks are $2000. I pick up 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the cutoff. Villian limps under the gun, a couple limpers to me, I limp, big blind checks (Pot $50).

FLOP: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villian leads out for $40. I call and everyone else folds (Pot $130).

TURN: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian now leads out for $100. I call. (Pot $330)

RIVER: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villian bets $200. I raise to $600. Villian fairly quickly says, "OK, then I'm all in" and pushes for a total of $1700 (so it is $1100 for me to call to win $1930). What now? Is it obvious?

[lsuplayer]

I think this is a call, but not necessarily an instant call. an aggressive mix-it-up type player limps utg in a game smaller than his norm, leads every street then 3 bets all in on the river. smells like AA or KK to me. Maybe AK, but not likely. I think it is important to note how he was playing in ep, limping a lot, raising, loose or tight. Many players like that play somewhat predictably from lp, but their ep plays vary widely. I still think with the smaller range of hands you can put him on, the only real hand he he plays like this and beats you is KK, so from their i think its just up to your instincts.

[krasserpan]

really difficult decision.
As the board is paired a full house seems obvious. So, if villain does not have a full house, I think, that he has just called the raise with AK or a straight.
But 3-betting the river on a paired board means real strenght. As you have the worst possible full house, I would fold here (66 in his hand seems very likely).

[lsuplayer]

I think a fold is possible, but the way villain is described, i dont think 66 is within his plausible range. I think the only hands he is limping with are either monsters or a similar hand to op's. The only two hands in those ranges that beat him are 64s and KK. I would call, but its close, depending on how villain has played in ep.

[McStinky]

Villian could definitely limp in from EP with 66, as well as a lot of other hands. I'm not sure why you exclude hands like this from his range.

[lsuplayer]

Well in all the instances i have experienced with a player like that he almost never has 66 in that spot. Thats what I was asking, how he played in ep. As much as I hate to say it, Im prob. putting my money in here against a player like this, and hoping to not see KK or 66.

[iggymcfly]

I'm a little bit of a station sometimes but I still think this is a fold. Hero calls every street and then raises the board pair on the river. That shows a ton of strength. It's saying "either I was slowplaying a big hand all along, or this river just improved me". Hero's not going to call the turn with just a 4, so if the river improved him he has to have at least a boat.

I can see villian being skeptical and calling with a weak hand here, but I can't see him value 3-betting without a boat. And this also seems like a really unlikely spot for a bluff. Most hands that he's going to fire 3 shells on will have enough showdown value that if he thinks hero's weak he's just going to call. I can't imagine he thinks "well this hand made hero a boat, but I'm going to represent a bigger boat to push him off and turn my big two pair hand into a bluff".

[lsuplayer]

He cant put hero on a hand like 67 or 56, AK even, when he has AA. Either way its a tough decision. I just think his image is a lot more important in the decision. A tricky lag who normally plays at 2x the stakes is capable of making this move with hands that we beat.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
He cant put hero on a hand like 67 or 56, AK even, when he has AA. Either way its a tough decision. I just think his image is a lot more important in the decision. A tricky lag who normally plays at 2x the stakes is capable of making this move with hands that we beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. There are a number of scenarios in which you have the best hand that might be individually unlikely, but collectively significant enough to warrant a call.

[McStinky]

Yeah, I guess he could take this line with a bunch of overpairs, especially 77 and 88. Could be a thin value bet on the river, turned into a 3-bet bluff.