PS 10NL bottom set faces aggression line check

villain is 36/17/3 over about 90 hands. I`m 24/15/1.6. My stats show a low AF, cause there where several aggressive players on my right and just let them hang themselves. Usualy I have a 2.7 AF. I usualy come right out betting this flop, but I thought it was a good moment for a checkraise. Since I figured somebody had hit his ace and is gonna protect his cards from the spade draw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($15.10)
Hero ($34)
BB ($9.25)
UTG ($6)
MP ($12.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $0.30.

Flop: ($1.30) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($1.30) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, UTG calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2.5</font>, Hero calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50.

River: ($8.80) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $9.75</font>

??

Should I lay this down on the turn ?

[Hank Scorpio]

I would have raised the turn.

[Panthro]

fold? god no, please go broke.

And with UTG in the middle, I donk that flop ALOT.

As played, 3-bet the turn.

Why should I reraise the turn ? It`s very unlikely that villain has AK here. The min reraise on the turn just screams big hand IMO. TT,AA,KK,QJ all beat me here. I only beat 2 pair here. So isn`t this a WAWB situation ?

I think I should have either shoved the turn or folded.

[IsaacAsimov]

The turn card is a scare card. I wouldn't start putting people on over sets though. That is too pesimistic in this case.
Is QJ in the range of MP? That would be a possibillity given the flop action. KJ would also be a hand here.
You can't lay down the turn imo, even if you think you are behind you could have up to 6-10 Outs against a couple of hands. You prob have implied odds here.
If you think you could be behind on the river, but are not sure, then why not check and call?
Actually I think your worries on the river are legit. Could be a bigger hand, but could also be a two pair hand so I go for the cheap showdown.

[jonyy6788]

grunch

ewwwwwwww, c/r flop is so ugly/obvious. Lead flop, you gotta protect your hand and you will get callers on this wet wet board. As played, raise turn, if reraised, push. Reraise riva AI

[jskinn04]

With such LAG stats, a wet board, and no c-bet on the flop, I don't think MP was strong on the flop. You are repping QJ and KT when you donk the turn for a large bet. 44 is also possible for you. AK and TT are long shots because you would have repopped those hands preflop a lot of the time.

So what can he have on the turn? What if he has a flush draw? He could checked the flop to see it for cheap. The turn filled a lot of broadway hands, but he decides to raise a likely strong bet after passing on a flop semibluff. That's crazy, so I doubt it's a flush draw. QJ and KT are very likely. KT less so because he didn't bet the flop. That means you're behind on the turn a lot. After UTG cold calls the raise, I'd put him on a FD+broadway draw. That guy could also have a big made hand, but that's not likely.

I like just calling the turn raise. If the board pairs on the river, now you're the favorite, even if the card is a K or T. I'd open shove the boat, and c/f to more than about a quarter pot river bet.

[BevillTheDevil]

i like your line on the flop but on the turn i definately rr and call a push but as played on river i bet about $6 and call a push. Layin a set down on the turn here is ultra passive IMO, im almost always tryin to get it all in on the turn here.

TT, AA is unlikely after he checked the flop, but KK, QT are very likely on the turn I think. I don`t think villain would min raise the turn with a flush draw and risk a checkraise.

Why bet so much on the river. If I`m ahead, he probably calls my bet with weaker holdings but folds to a bigger bet when holding something like 2 pair, also he might bluff a busted flush draw. I will call his raises anyways.

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