A speculation about mid-limit poker & winning players

SplawnDarts · #1 01-19-2007, 02:30 PM

At any given time in a poker hand, in a heads-up scenario, one of four possible situations is in effect: you can think your hand is best, or not, and your opponent can be indicating strength, or not, creating 4 possible combinations.

Here's the speculation: most winning players play 3 of the four situations nearly-optimally. But they don't even come close to playing the "think I'm best, opponent indicates strength" scenario optimally. Instead they continually underestimate the value of their opponent's hand.

Agree? Disagree?

hra146 · #2 01-19-2007, 03:34 PM

holy sh*** , poker is that easy?

AKQJ10 · #3 01-19-2007, 03:41 PM

Take out the "winning players" and I agree and it isn't close. Human nature in a game like poker is to underestimate the competition. "He doesn't understand -- I have aces with a KING kicker. I have a nasty surprise for him. Oops... looks like he had a set of sixes."

I think the winning players are those who've learned to judge these situations well, although your point may still be valid. I may be misunderstanding the full complexity of your question. Also, winning players play the bad hand/bad hand situations better than passive players, but that's pretty automatic against a passive player who'll never bluff-raise.

SplawnDarts · #4 01-19-2007, 03:56 PM

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Take out the "winning players" and I agree and it isn't close.

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I disagree. I believe many losing players grossly misplay the "don't think I'm best, opponent shows strength" scenario by calling when the odds don't make it profitable & by bluffing into strength.

Joga Bonito · #5 01-19-2007, 04:39 PM

To put poker into 4 categories like this will draw some critics.. But I think you have a very valid point. When I turned from a losing player to a break-even and winning player (atleast I hope i'm not just running good) it was because I started to place opponents on draws and began the process of folding instead of calling down 2 more bets. This has improved the amount I win a lot..

An oldtime 2+2'er made a post which I can't find right now talking about how if you decide to fold you've stopped any possibility of losing any more money in the hand. This doesn't mean folding all the time is the right thing to do, but the players I make the most money off of are the ones who DO call turn or river action that I create after making my hand.. The better players tend to fold at optimal times.

SplawnDarts · #6 01-19-2007, 04:48 PM

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To put poker into 4 categories like this will draw some critics.

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That may be, but I don't think it's justified criticism. I think both of those things are basically booleans variables - either you think you're good a hight percentage of the time in situation X, or you don't. And either your opponent has shown strength by betting and raising when the opportunity presened itself, or they didn't. There are only 4 possible values 2 boolean variables can take on.

Joga Bonito · #7 01-19-2007, 05:19 PM

I was actually defending your analysis, saying people well say that it is flawed but I though it was a very good evaluation. Sorry for the confusion.

SplawnDarts · #8 01-19-2007, 05:21 PM

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I was actually defending your analysis, saying people well say that it is flawed but I though it was a very good evaluation. Sorry for the confusion.

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Actually, I got that you were "on my side" as it were but since one of the critics has already appeared above, I figured I might as well address it.

Darn if the internet doesn't lead to confused communication.

AKQJ10 · #9 01-19-2007, 05:30 PM

Well, it's a simplified model, but that doesn't mean it's invalid. My certainty about my hand could range from 99 on a Jxx board where I think my opponent has a tendency to bet into me to pick off my PFR, to TPTK, to middle set, to the nut straight on the river. Ditto the other half of that spectrum (my uncertainty about my hand), and ditto the level of aggression shown by the opponent.

Nevertheless, models exist to simplify a complex reality, so I don't have a problem with drawing the line at "I have no idea if I'm ahead or not" as the arbitrary midpoint of the spectrum.

Joga Bonito · #10 01-19-2007, 05:40 PM

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"I have no idea if I'm ahead or not".

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This is probably the largest difference between winning and losing poker. Knowing the answer to this question more times than the guys you are playing with.. I'm glad I read this post.