A9o overplay??? 2/4

[sebastien]

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

FLOP: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB bets, Hero calls.

TURN:9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bets, Hero calls. to tight??? i must raise???

RIver: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB bets, Hero raises....

Can i raise here??

[Sheakspeer]

I think I'm just calling this river because any hand that bets this river is often 3 betting because it's a straight (like 6 7 often or a better hand like 9 8). The 9 doesn't really improve our hand against villan's range once the river is bet.

The turn call is standard I think.

[Wolfram]

I'm pretty sure A9o isn't that profitable in 2/4 from MP but you managed to isolate so good job.

I'm raising this flop, but a call is fine. I don't see much value in a turn or river raise, just call it down.

[mvoss]

Preflop is good. The flop is fine IMO. On the turn I see no reason to raise, he may fold a worse hand and you'll be 3-bet by a straight. I think there's value in a river raise since almost nobody folds here for 1 more bet.

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure A9o isn't that profitable in 2/4 from MP

[/ QUOTE ]

really? that cant be true can it, if its even marginally profitable or neutral EV also we should play it for image ect.

as for the rest of the hand i play it the same, i dont really like a turn raise. ur not accomplishing much with it except maybe getting him to give up with crap or charging draws that mite bluff the river anyways but will fold the river UI if u vb. He could also 3bet a worse hand thinking theres no way u have a 6 in ur hand over 90% of the time.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure A9o isn't that profitable in 2/4 from MP

[/ QUOTE ]
really? that cant be true can it, if its even marginally profitable or neutral EV also we should play it for image ect.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm probably too weak tight from MP. I just hate getting called by somebody with position.

[jstill]

that does suck to get cold called but i think ur cb takes down the pot often enough to show profit vs his range on a lot of boards.

raising and getting called by just a loose sb and any BB tho and i feel great about the situation I'm in with position and initiative.

[bbbushu]

so jstill,

we raise/call this river?

[milesdyson]

I raise A9o UTG now.

I would not raise postflop in this hand. 6x is a large part of his flop donking range and I don't want to get punked.

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
so jstill,

we raise/call this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wasn't entirely sure about this when i posted my response so I omitted it. I think part of the reason I was unsure, and part of the reason its often hard to give GREAT or perfect advice, is that way have absolutely no read here. If I had played villain for 50 100 or 200 hands I'd feel much more confident.

maybe becuz of that i shouldnt have advocated raising, but vs almost everyone i play if i raised the river I would fold to a 3bet. There are a few people i pretty much never plan to take any line that doesn't showdown a decent strengthened hand because they are completely untrustworthy spewtards, but vs the norm i think its not a leak at all.

The reason i think we can absolutely fold here without much concern, is that a 3bet bluff i think is pretty close to a zero percent occurance.

Why? What do we call the turn and raise the river with thats a better hand than whatever he has, that we fold to a 3bet? or what worse hand is he going to 3bet for value MAYBE T9 or random worse 9(doubt it though) and thats a very small part of his range.

our hands looks exactly like a 6 or boat with our line, i don't think hes going off and taking a shot at us and if so his bluff is not +EV IMO in a situation like this where we raise a 4 card straight, paired board on the river. Am i giving villain too much credit for the ability to reason logically? Perhaps but even taking that error into consideration I raise fold not raise call.

He however will be pretty likely to pay off the raise with a worse hand as many worse hands might bluff raise the river w/ UI overs a missed fd ect.