KJs hand

[Hattifnatt]

Villian is generally on the passive side, both with draws and good hands and doesnt bluff very much. I am running pretty bad at the table but my image is on the TAG side.

Someone prefer something different?

Stacks:
Hero: $1000
Villian (BB): $1500

5/10, 6-handed

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, Hero raises to 35, SB folds, Villian calls

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (75)
Villian checks, Hero bets 70, Villian calls

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (215)
Villian checks, Hero bets 180, Villian raises to 420, Hero pushes..

[Grunch]

Passive check-raises the turn basically committing you, I don't see how you have any fold equity and it seems unlikely that you have the best hand. Then again, at least 9 outs are good and I can't really see checking the turn. NH?

[Hoopster81]

Turn is essentially a minraise. I think I would call. I think your FE is 0 and I don't think you usually have the best hand.

If we call, pot on river would be ~$1000 with $500 behind, right? I think I could fold that unimproved.

[Jesse Kidd]

If you call turn, I assume villain puts you in on river 95%+ of the time, regardless of card. I assume you're calling if a K or J comes, which could end up being further expensive if he's on AK/AJ.

How loose preflop is villain? Assuming he doesn't bluff much here, the only other hand here that makes a lot of sense is QTh (would he peel on flop with QTs, or just QT?)

Do we really have the odds to make the call here on the turn, considering some of our outs may be tainted or in his hand?

Also, trying not to be results oriented here, but is checking this turn a better play? It keeps you from this tough decision, better hands won't fold to our bet, our bet will fold out some worse hands, it seems like there are more river cards that help us than hurt us, he's probably not drawing to anything, and we may get AQ or something to call a river bet.

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your FE is 0 and I don't think you usually have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Snipe]

I don’t know that I like a shove here. The turn CR looks pretty strong from the villain you described. Would he play AQ like this or is it more likely QTs, small set, etc?

Here you have a generally passive, straight forward opponent who has just CRed a TAG with you holding the nut flush draw and only two Ks / Js unaccounted for. This really looks like and overplayed ace or set of 4s and I’m leaning towards a set.

For this reason, I really don’t like a shove here unless he stacks off with AQ / AT. I think it’s more +EV to call the CR and at least give himself a chance to donk off more chips on the river. I just don’t think he calls your shove when he’s behind enough and obviously he doesn’t fold for that price when he’s ahead.

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think your FE is 0 and I don't think you usually have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my thoughts as well during the hand but what can I do about it?

I dont think folding to a c/r is an option getting this price because I get direct odds just for the flush draw assuming I get the rest if I hit.

If I just call the odds on the river will be about 3:1 and I dont think its possible to fold even unimproved.

With deeper stacks I would most certainly have called.

Without the flush draw the fold is pretty clear.

If he doesnt seemed so passive my line is certainly the best imo.

Thoughts?

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think your FE is 0 and I don't think you usually have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my thoughts as well during the hand but what can I do about it?

I dont think folding to a c/r is an option getting this price because I get direct odds just for the flush draw assuming I get the rest if I hit.

If I just call the odds on the river will be about 3:1 and I dont think its possible to fold even unimproved.

With deeper stacks I would most certainly have called.

Without the flush draw the fold is pretty clear.

If he doesnt seemed so passive my line is certainly the best imo.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

To me this seems so close as to not really matter.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
If I just call the odds on the river will be about 3:1 and I dont think its possible to fold even unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think you win 25% of the time on the river if you miss and he shoves? I can understand just getting it in there in the heat of the moment, but this looks like it would be a very bad call. Basically you are hoping a passive player bluffs twice on a very scary board versus the PFR, with the second barrel coming after you've shown some strength and willingness to go to showdown by calling the turn.

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
If I just call the odds on the river will be about 3:1 and I dont think its possible to fold even unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where we disagree