Is this river decision as tough as I think it is?

[Courtesy Flush]

Didn't have any info on villain because I was playing without PAHUD for whatever reason and I'll just be honest and say that I suck at player profiling online.

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $175.60
UTG+1: $25.20
CO: $15
Button: $129.45
Hero: $98.05
BB: $232.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $3</font>, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($14, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $40.35</font>, Button calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($94.7, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $69</font>, Hero ???

I ran my clock all the way down on this river. Did I put too much money into the pot to even consider folding here? He certainly is representing a set. Bet pot all the way and insta-shoved the river after my check. But he is in position here, and I can't ignore the possibility of two pair or a busted draw. Was my river check dumb? Do you call this bet?

[kapw7]

I would call this. I doubt he's betting the river with AQ or worse so it's either a FH or busted draw. But I can't see what kind of set he can play like this post flop

However I think you wouldn't be in this very hard situation on the river if you played differently the previous streets.


Disclaimer: Novice PLO player

[wazz]

This is a fold IMO. $53 to call for $147 but your villain is repping queens or aces full, and you've got the only meaningful draw on that flop. There are of course many villains who will make that turn play with AQ but you don't have the luxury of being able to play the man rather than the cards.

In terms of how you played the hand, I don't mind the checkraise on the turn, but I don't love it. Lead out, even if it's only for half-pot and to induce a raise. Flop play is..... meh, again the check-call is ok but it kinda telegraphs your hand. It's good sometimes if you want to get weaker draws in there.

And your thinking about 'putting too much money into the pot to even consider folding' is off. Pot odds is the only important thing to consider. 'How much money you've put in the pot' can sometimes be, if not relevant, an indicator of reverse implied odds, for example if you've only put 2 BB in preflop and hit middle set and might have to pay 200 BB more to get to showdown against a player who has shown strength to suggest he has top set, you might say 'I've put so little in this hand and would have to pay so much to find out if it's good, I'll just fold'.

[phiphika1453]

I call.

Standard scare card, OOP checks then button bets.

Looks like a player who likes his late position in this game, as he should.

[fnord_too]

Surely your only question on the river is whether you lead or check call. I don't think there is any way you can fold this against an unknown.

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely your only question on the river is whether you lead or check call. I don't think there is any way you can fold this against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you think the villain is calling that turn with? Is he hoping for a scare card or is going to bluff at a spade and a board-pair. Even if he considers those "bluff-outs" it's a bad play for im to make. (If he's bad you could maybe put him on AQ but that's probably it.)

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Surely your only question on the river is whether you lead or check call. I don't think there is any way you can fold this against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you think the villain is calling that turn with? Is he hoping for a scare card or is going to bluff at a spade and a board-pair. Even if he considers those "bluff-outs" it's a bad play for im to make. (If he's bad you could maybe put him on AQ but that's probably it.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Flush draw, straight draw, two pair, air, and of course a set is possible. Of course it is a bad play to make, but he called a full pot raise with at best a set that didn't even have implied odds if he got total value out of all rivers. If he had just a huge draw, like set + straight and flush outs, well, I would have to look at the hand and action again to see if that even makes sense. I am often inclined to beleive someone is a donk I don't know better, and most the time that doesn't change a lot even when I do know better.

[BobAllinSki]

Nothing wrong with folding it but I'd probably call just because the small flop bet is really bad for any set that doesnt come with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw which is a small part of his range, it looks more like a draw that doesnt want to call a real bet or a scared 2 pair that could easily have spiked a third pair on the turn. Alsot the turn check raise really defines your hand so the chances of a bluff increase slightly on the river.

But as a default play there isnt really anything wrong with folding, I just think your often good in this spot.

[iggymcfly]

Flop bet doesn't look like a set at all. The only set people ever play like that is top set and that's usually only real donkeys. Also, your blocker makes that less likely. Using this information, I'd C/R the size of the pot on the flop and either take it down or get it all in on the turn.

Seeing as how you didn't use this information at the time though, I think you should probably use it to call the river. Granted, a draw doesn't make a lot of sense either, but the only boat I can see here is A5. I think you're going to see something like A467 or A678 often enough to make this a call. High wrap on broadway is a strong possibility as well.