2/4 river bluff

schwza · #1 01-19-2007, 01:50 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($415)
UTG ($820.10)
MP ($283.40)
Hero ($409.50)
Button ($663.40)
SB ($402)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $16, Button calls $16, 2 folds.

Flop: ($38) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $28, Button calls $28.

Turn: ($94) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $36, Hero raises to $115, Button calls $79.

River: ($324) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $250.5 (All-In)

history: i haven't been playing with villain for very long (45 hands), but he's calling my cbet and betting the turn like it's his job. the first time i cbet 986 with a flush draw and crai the turn an offsuit K and he folded. then a couple times he called my cbet and i gave up and check/folded the turn. then this hand happened.

he seems decent enough, 33/17 in 45 hands. i'm running around 28/24.

bigt439 · #2 01-19-2007, 01:54 PM

if this is a good opponent to do this against (only you know really) then i dont see anything fundamentally wrong with it.

schwza · #3 01-19-2007, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if this is a good opponent to do this against (only you know really) then i dont see anything fundamentally wrong with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i've told you pretty much everything i knew about him, so you know what i know. i felt like he was floating me a ton and would make a marginal call on the turn, but would fold a 7, 6, or missed flush draw on the river and only call with 35, 4x, and maybe a high-ish pp.

mikeJ · #4 01-19-2007, 02:47 PM

Why don't you just double barrel instead of going for a c/r? I think you will get looked up a lot by any pair that called the turn by an opponent who seems loose by his floating habits. I hate it.

Snipe · #5 01-19-2007, 03:32 PM

I’m not usually one to put faith in AF stats, but I think they’re pertinent in situations like this. What we want to know here is what he’s capable of folding on the river and what he makes a 1/3 pot bet / calls CR with. An aggression number will help us figure out both of those to some extent in conjunction with your reads.

If you’re 28/24, you’ve obviously been opening a lot of pots in late position which, against a 31/17, means his calling range on the button is pretty broad. The PFCC tells us nothing in my mind.

The flop is pretty dry against a 28/24 villain. Villain’s folding no part of his PF range here, so again, no info in my mind.

In the context of the previous plays you described, your turn check looks like you’re giving up, so (depending on aggression and how he plays draws), it would be reasonable for the villain to take a shot here with any pair. The real question comes from his bet sizing.

How much did he bet the times when you CBet flop and CK/F the turn?!?!?!?!?! I think that’s pretty important here. Is he the type who will take a pot % shot or is he one of these guys who will call $5 in a $5 pot but fold to $100 in a $10,000 pot? (Exaggeration obviously, but it makes my point).

Depending on your read of his bet sizing, I can go either way on the CR, particularly in light of the previous hands. I think double barreling is acceptable as well since (again, depending on aggression) I would fire trips / boat / combo draw into a passive opponent while CRing the more aggro players with the weaker end of that range to get value while I’m ahead while pricing out draws.

After Villains turn call, I think it looks like an overpair / busted flush / combo draw a significant portion of the time, however 66/77 play the hand the exact same way against you. Premium PPs reraise well before now, so I think we can disregard them. I do worry a tiny bit about a suited 2 pair, but not enough to swing the scale.

Unless he’s a complete station or good reader, given prior engagement, I like the river push as much of his range can’t stand heat.

Paul Thomson · #6 01-19-2007, 04:09 PM

When he calls the turn check raise, he has a hand. I guess it's more likely that he has KK then AA since you have one of the aces, so I guess it makes this ok.

However, I wouldn't be doing this if the river blanked.

yvesaint · #7 01-19-2007, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When he calls the turn check raise, he has a hand. I guess it's more likely that he has KK then AA since you have one of the aces,

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where do u guys come up w/these reads lol

bet2win · #8 01-19-2007, 04:24 PM

this is just trying to justify tilt

if he keeps floating you just check the flop then make him double barrel to win a pot

Paul Thomson · #9 01-19-2007, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When he calls the turn check raise, he has a hand. I guess it's more likely that he has KK then AA since you have one of the aces,

[/ QUOTE ]

where do u guys come up w/these reads lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that Aces and Kings auto-push the turn? What do you think that the call of a check-raise on the turn means... TT-QQ?

Fisher32 · #10 01-19-2007, 04:38 PM

I like the courage you have. Villian's probably going to keep you honest on the river. He has a hand when your called. If he's a weak player, then you made a nice play.

You might want to re-think your bluffs next time. Only thing I can see you having here is a House or nothing.