Please analyze this play....large tourney...

[PantsOnFire]

Sorry about the non-conversion, I just can't seem to do it right.

Here is the setup. I am tight-aggressive. Chip leader maddog is weak/tight with some aggressiveness but not lately. He seems intent on protecting his stack. UTG mitsak has been extremely cautious. We are nearing the bubble.

Preflop - raise from mitsak means something. I range him AK, AQ, JJ+ pretty standard stuff. Actually, his weak raise indicates to me something like AK. Call by maddog also means something but I have a feeling he is calling with a speculative hand. I think he would reraise with a premium hand. He hasn't played much and I think he is looking to KO mitsak with implied odds. I have trash but I am getting 6:1 calling odds (a min-raise from UTG with these blinds and antes is a big mistake and I hope I can capitalize). I figure maddog is perceptive enough to know I can call with any two so that is in the back of my mind. I am sure mitsak will play this straightforward. If he likes the flop he will move in.

Flop - This is a great flop for me. If mitsak has two high crads he is not happy. If he has a big pair he is happy and betting, probably all-in. He checks. I cannot see a slowplay here. Only 99 has even the closest right to try a slowplay so his check means he has overcards. maddog makes a weak bet. Since I am sure mitsak will fold here, I make an equally weak raise, although I am trying to represent a possible decpetion of stregth plus it is not costly. I'm am about 50/50 whether I win this right here. A call is not so bad, and a reraise is the end of the fun. OK, call by maddog.

Turn - The board pairs and there is still a flush draw and a weak straight draw. I figure a check might scare him and a bet might look suspicious. I check and he checks behind. I put him on a flush draw. If he had a 9 he surely would have bet here to protect his trip 9s. That would have probably ended my fun as well. If he has x2 or x6 he might be mildly concerned but not out of this hand be any means. Of course, if he has 22 or 66 then he is just stringing me along but it is slightly possible. However, he should have bet the flop with second or third set.

River - This is a lot better card than a club. I couldn't bluff into a club here is what I'm thinking. But this three of a kind on the board gives me a chance. Now, I feel he can fold a lot of hands and I really have to discount a 9. I'm glad I stuck around because I think this pot is mine now and he has a busted draw that will fold to a glare and a big chip. So I figure most of the time here he has a naked A or a busted flush draw. I decide to go for a stone cold bluff. Pricing the bet seemed to be important and I know a 10000 bet would come up with two 5000 chips. I thought this might look strong. I might have been wishing too deeply but this is how it went down.

Let me know the areas I am weak in for the assessment of this hand.


Blinds 1,000/2,000, ante 100... No Limit Texas Holdem

Seat 2: flushinitup (20,763 in chips)
Seat 4: Puff'n'Bluff (30,867 in chips)
Seat 5: fumbrunner (26,578 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (51,559 in chips)
Seat 7: mitsak (29,080 in chips)
Seat 9: maddog0678 (87,255 in chips)
Seat 10: deedee2517 (19,652 in chips)

Dealt to Hero [ 5d ]
Dealt to Hero [ 8h ]
mitsak : Raise (4,000)
maddog0678: Call (4,000)
deedee2517: Fold
flushinitup: Fold
Puff'n'Bluff: Fold
fumbrunner: Fold
Hero: Call (2,000)

*** FLOP *** : [ 9c 6s 2c ]
Hero: Check
mitsak : Check
maddog0678: Bet (2,400)
Hero: Raise (7,000)
mitsak : Fold
maddog0678: Call (4,600)

*** TURN *** : [ 9c 6s 2c ] [ 9s ]
Hero: Check
maddog0678: Check

*** RIVER *** : [ 9c 6s 2c 9s ] [ 9d ]
Hero: Bet (10,000)
maddog0678: Fold
Hero: Winner -- doesn't show cards

[PantsOnFire]

Moderator, please delete this lead balloon.