Lo8 50/1 Stars - AAxxds no low draw

franknagaijr · #1 01-09-2007, 02:09 AM

What is the correct turn play here? Rest of hand ok?

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Hi-Lo Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8SB, 4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6BB, 4 players)

Habib Marwan · #2 01-09-2007, 02:18 AM

limp preflop, bet flop, check call turn

hypermegachi · #3 01-09-2007, 03:03 AM

why are we betting this hand on the flop when all we have going is a gutshot and a low draw is out?

franknagaijr · #4 01-09-2007, 09:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why are we betting this hand on the flop when all we have going is a gutshot and a low draw is out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Double runner-runner, overpair, and nobody else has a clean flush or straight draw? That or we're representing A2xx to get the other A2xx to slow down.

WMB · #5 01-09-2007, 02:17 PM

your hand is not strong enough to raise preflop. you're in tough spot here as you very well may have to improve to win half the pot. i'd be inclined to check here and either raise the button if he bets to protect your high hand, or call 1 bet if an early position player bets. if you check and its 2 bets to you, i fold.

T50_Omaha8 · #6 01-09-2007, 04:59 PM

In the low stakes LO8 games, high only AAxx hands are speculative at best. They should not be raised preflop, and you missed this flop badly. I'd checkfold right there, since your runner runner draws will nearly always enable low. Any edge you have is gonna be tiny at this point, and if you're in a hole you're gonna be in deep.

WilyTilt · #7 01-10-2007, 01:36 AM

By not raising your bad AAxx hand here, you aren't faced with the decision on peeling on a missed flop. It would be an easy fold then. Here, the peel is still incorrect, although only marginally.

morphball · #8 01-10-2007, 01:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In the low stakes LO8 games, high only AAxx hands are speculative at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say this is often true in the higher stakes as well...

morningstar · #9 01-10-2007, 02:11 AM

raise btf is ok because you don't have a weak AAxx, you have a very nice dbl-suited high-only aces hand that has well enough value to raise any amount of players even from the sb (you can run sims or trust experience)

otf it's ok to cont bet for a variety of reasons, but you must understand that this bet doesn't tie you in the pot in any way... lot of evil turn cards and not that many clean cards, but you can't be a pussy and ck/fold this flop mostly because it's a raised pot (you made the pot big enough btf so you can squeeze all the value from the hand :-))

turn is a semi-evil card, but you still have 10 nut outs (7 non dublicable <-if that is an actual word) and 10ish semi good cards (good enough to over call the river)...
...still you're in ck/call-mode and some combinations of bet/raise might force you to fold

river depends about a gazillion things, but you should bout always call a single bettor and sometimes over call with just aces up

T50_Omaha8 · #10 01-10-2007, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise btf is ok because you don't have a weak AAxx, you have a very nice dbl-suited high-only aces hand that has well enough value to raise any amount of players even from the sb (you can run sims or trust experience)

otf it's ok to cont bet for a variety of reasons, but you must understand that this bet doesn't tie you in the pot in any way... lot of evil turn cards and not that many clean cards, but you can't be a pussy and ck/fold this flop mostly because it's a raised pot (you made the pot big enough btf so you can squeeze all the value from the hand :-))

[/ QUOTE ] I disagree with your line. Against random opponent cards you are looking at 40/30/30 equity preflop, which seems like a lot, but you really only have a 6% edge over average. And I think that's even a very rosy estimation, since on most flops you'll be left dry and with no idea where you are in the hand, while your opponents might have a great opportunity to scoop you in a large pot. The reverse implied odds to playing this hand for a big pot OOP are simply too large. I'd call the SB enthusiastically, though.

On the flop, your equity advantage is very slim. Against random cards you are only at 35% equity.
board: Qh8s4c
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AsJsAc9c 35.44% 18,159 44,925 1,930 0 0
**** 32.13% 13,994 21,811 1,647 26,605 1,609
**** 32.43% 14,231 21,917 1,584 26,845 1,609

If you bet, the worse ones of those random hands (against which your hand performs well) will fold, while the best of those hands (against which you're really hurting) will call or raise. This is a situation commonplace in NLHE: you're making a bet that'll only get called when you're beat. And by now even the worst $.5/1 players understand you're holding AA or A2. You should have limped preflop, that way the implied odds can work for you, rather than against you.