turn play against inexperienced play with tells

[moneyshot]

very inexperienced player is the villian in the BB.

good 5/10 NL game. Villian has around 800. I have him well covered. I have almost taken down several huge pots in the past 30 minutes with weak hands that I was able to limp in with (57 suited, 68 off) Villian is typical inexperienced player, tends to underbet pots and cant lay down a big hand. In other words, yum yum

Folded to me in the cutoff. I raise to 30 with 45 suited.

When the big blind, checked his cards, his eyes practically jump out of his head. He then decides to think for about 45 seconds and then raies to 75. I call 45 more. He then caps his cards and brings them close to him.

Flop: rainbow KQ4 with a backdoor flush draw. He bets 40 into a $155 pot. I call.

Turn: 5. He wakes up and bets $120. He has about $550 behind. What is your play here? flat call and move him in on the river is a safe card comes (eg. no A K Q), mini-raise here or push here.

[DJ Sensei]

I say push it. You don't want to get stuck in a big pot and hit a bad river with chips behind (but not too many). He'll call with... probably anything he has. If its AK/AA, sweet. If its KK/QQ, oh well, Rebuy and bust him the next time around.

[Coffee]

I honestly don't know. My first thought is to push, but really, he's playing it like he has 1 of 3 hands (AA, KK, QQ). Then again, if he's that inexperienced, then would he know to bet his set out right here, or wouldn't he wait until the turn to trap?

Honestly, this smells like AA. AK seems a bit less likely b/c reraising with AK, unless I'm mistaken, is a more experienced move(but I could be wrong...it was for me, though...since I'm a natural tight-passive).

But...the underbet on the flop is a bit of a problem. Inexperienced though he may be, he may know enough to try to trap with an underbet. That said, I can almost guarantee that, regardless of his holding, he instacalls a push from you. What's more is that he is probably all in on the river anyway, regardless.

I just wish I had a better read on his natural tendencies, rather than his experience level. My gut says push, but I've run into sets like this before, too.

[jrforman]

Call the turn, fold to a big bet on river. If your lucky he will underbet one more time, but your ahead here only 1/3 times and pushing is only going to get you called by a hand that dominates you.

[boxedIn]

I do not like raising at all on the turn. It is obvious from his demeanor (so you say) that he has a hand he will probably go to the felt with. In my experiences, this will include AK (to the poster who questioned it); most inexperienced players seem to raise AK strongly and overplay it, especially when an A or K flops.

So, you have two hands possible that you beat: AA and AK, and two hands possible you don't KK and QQ. Not only does his reactions seem more like AA, but there are also significantly more chances he has the AA or AK, as opposed to QQ/KK (I'd do the math, but I'm lazy - I'm guessing it's outnumbered 3:1 in favor or AA/AK).

Anyway, the point here is that he's going to the felt no matter what you do. So why not give yourself a way out of the situation if you know you are beat? There is no point in getting the villian to "put it in while he's behind" as he'll do that on the river anyway. But if an A comes on the river, you can fold to any bet. And if the board pairs above you, you can also fold to any bet. Might as well save some money here if the cards happen to work against you this time. I can see absolutely no benefiting to raising on the turn.

Whether to river-raise on a blank card probably depends on his reaction/bet on the river, but I would tend to think a fairly strong raise would get paid off well and, assuming a blank river (any non-board-pair, non-A), take the free money he's willing to part with.