Iggy's Bowl Picks

[iggymcfly]

YTD 126-107-2, +3.3 units

I'm going to keep one thread for my bowl picks, although I'll probably only be entering them one week at a time. Anyway, got two for this week:


Troy vs. Rice -4.5 (3.5 units):

I think there's quite a bit of money on Troy here from people that remember their relatively close games against Georgia Tech and Florida State, and assume they're a competent football team. Well, there's a difference between sneaking up on a team who's sleepwalking for three quarters and doing well against someone who's prepared.

In their other two I-A non-conference games, Troy lost 56-0 to Nebraska and 21-3 to UAB who Rice beat later in the year. The Sagarin predictor has Rice as 9 points better, and I think's a little on the conservative side if anything. Also, Troy's now been facing subpar competition for 7 weeks in a row in the Sun Belt, and will likely have a tough time getting up to game speed against a Rice squad that's been playing in possibly the toughest mid-major conference in the nation. This is the reason that the Sun Belt team's gotten blown out in the New Orleans Bowl the last four years in a trend that I see continuing here.


BYU -3 vs. Oregon (3 units):

This one's all about motivation. Oregon's lost three in a row, and could probably care less whether they win the Las Vegas Bowl. In fact, the very location might distract them. BYU meanwhile, is looking to validate their 10-2 season with their first win against a major conference opponent after losing to Arizona and Boston College earlier in the year.

Based on overall talent, BYU looks like a good bet anyway as the Sagarin predictor has them listed as a 5.5 point favorite at a neutral site. The only thing that might make you want to hold off here are the matchups. BYU's pretty much a pure passing team as they rank 4th in the country in passing offense and 54th in rushing offense. Oregon's strength defensively is their pass defense as they rank 27th in pass efficiency defense and only 74th against the run.

[iggymcfly]

Actually, don't know how I didn't get this one right away, but I think this is a pretty good pick too:

BYU/Oregon under 62 (2 units):

BYU's only had three games that were this hihg-scoring all year, and in those games they would have just barely covered this margin scoring 63, 63, and 64. Oregon also reached this total 3 times, against Oklahoma, Cal, and Portland State, scoring 69 in their highest-scoring outing.

However, with Oregon's pass defense matching up well with BYU, and with their offense only averaging 16 PPG in their last 3 outings, I don't see either side putting up a big number here either. I could see a final score here of something like 31-23.

[iggymcfly]

TCU/Northern Illinois under 21.5 (2 units)

NIU's top receiver broke his leg in the first half, and their offense looks terrible. Their O-line's been getting dominated up front worse than I've ever seen a line get dominated, and they got nothing the entire first half.

The Husky defense meanwhile has been playing at least fairly well, and TCU should be content to pound the ball and run the clock out in the second half. The only way this possibly goes over is if TCU gets multiple defensive TDs.

Edit: Added another unit at 21 (-110). This is available at Bodog.

[iggymcfly]

Not sure how I watched that first half and decided that the under was a better play than just taking TCU. Not a very good pick there.

Bowl record: 0-1, -3 units

YTD: 126-108-2, +0.3 units

[Ken_AA]

I can not believe how bad NIU was. Seriously, that was a bowl team? I lost my over wager as they couldn't get anything going. That looked like a bad high school mismatch.

Ken

[freewheeler]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure how I watched that first half and decided that the under was a better play than just taking TCU. Not a very good pick there.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, those half-time "action junky" bets have a way of working out badly.... But your reasoning wasn't bad.

Anyway, I think you'll right the ship tonight. I like your analysis of the BYU/Oregon game. It may be a stretch to say that Oregon simply don't care, but I agree that BYU should be the team with more "urgency" out there. I generally discount that type of analysis, but in college games in happen. Location could indeed be a distraction as well. But the big thing for me is that BYU have a really good QB. And they didn't get their 10-2 record with mirrors. Not so sure about the Under as these 2 will definitlely find the end zone quite a few times, but I think BYU are the better team. And price is resonable since major conference team generally gets more square action (I think). Correct line is prolly closer to a touchdown. Go Cougars!!

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I can not believe how bad NIU was. Seriously, that was a bowl team? I lost my over wager as they couldn't get anything going. That looked like a bad high school mismatch.

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]


And they are a semi-decent team for the MAC.
Certainly influences my opinion of the other bowl-games involving MAC teams.

The MAC had this reputation of being some awesome mid-major conference with a ton of great QB's.
But they have clearly fallen back a notch or two imo.


NIU looked freaking awful.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
BYU -3 vs. Oregon (3 units)
BYU/Oregon under 62 (2 units)

[/ QUOTE ]

BYU 38
Oregon 8

Easy money here covering by 27 ATS and by 16 on the under. The game went pretty much as I thought it would here, as Oregon was unmotivated and undisciplined while BYU played well on both sides on the ball. I really think the Cougar players were treating it like a playoff game while the OU guys were just thinking of it as a Vegas vacation. The 62 total was also grossly inflated considering how bad the Oregon offense has been lately.

One more thing to keep an eye out for in future bowl games: We've had two Mountain West teams play so far, and they've won by 30 points each. Makes Utah and New Mexico look pretty tempting.

Bowl record: 2-1, +2 units
YTD record: 128-108-2, +5.3 units

[iggymcfly]

Added:

San Jose State vs. New Mexico -3.5 (1 unit):

As mentioned, BYU and TCU both did really well for the Mountain West, suggesting the conference might have been underrated a little bit as a whole. Even without the BYU game included, and assuming full home advantage, the Sagarin predictor has New Mexico favored by 4.5 already.

Also, that number's likely a little low since New Mexico improved tremendously over the course of the season. After starting the season 2-4 including a 17-6 home loss to Portland State in the opener, the Lobos won 4 of their last 6 with the only losses coming to TCU and BYU. Also, San Jose State's likely suffering from "just happy to be there" syndrome after not going to a bowl in 10 years.

What finally tipped me over from leaning to New Mexico to actually betting them was the Bowl Pick'em on ESPN. Even though UNM's favored by 3.5, 72% of the contestants had SJSU winning straight up. Can you say square team?

The one downside here is that 3 UNM players were suspended after being involved in a strip club shooting two weeks ago, which will distract the team, even if it only costs them one starter (a DE). Still though, I don't think it's enough to change the result. Fair line seems like UNM -6.5 here.

[MicroBob]

Why are so many of the squares on San Jose?
It's not like they are hugely popular public-team.

Weird.

Agree very much with your analysis on NM.
Will probably be betting them too.

NM isn't exactly BYU or TCU so that 'stronger conference' stuff might not quite be as much opf a factor. But the fact that they are stronger now then at the beginning is very relevent of course.