Quickie - FLOP PLAY? AA2x on A35 with heavy action...

[kurto]

An opponent had this hand against me. He was capping the flop and turn and at first I thought his flop play was terrible. On further reflection, I'm not really certain.

PLAYER is in MP with AA28 and limps after 1 person has already called. 4 to the flop--

Flop: A 3 5 (rainbow)

BB leads into field. EP calls. PLAYER raises, folds to BB who reraises, EP calls and PLAYER CAPS.

TURN
3 (A 3 5)

BB leads. EP calls. PLAYER RAISES, BB RAISES, EP folds.

RIVER:
4 (A 3 3 5)

BB checks. PLAYER BETS. BB calls.

Is it correct in that situation to cap the flop? If so, why? (the turn play I understand)

[bbartlog]

Three handed, the question is whether Mr. AA28 has more than 33% pot equity. Personally I wonder what Mr. EP was holding that he felt comfortable with all the flop bets and then folded the turn. Any huge wrap should also have given him the nut low...
Anyway, figuring that someone has 24xx on this flop, AA28 looks to be pretty behind. FH redraws for 30-something% at the high gives 15% pot equity, while the small chance of a 4 falling to tie for the low gives a few more % pot equity. So the crazy capped betting is just someone who can't accept that their top set isn't much good here (though perhaps still worth calling with depending on pot size).

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I wonder what Mr. EP was holding that he felt comfortable with all the flop bets and then folded the turn. Any huge wrap should also have given him the nut low...


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Ha. That's funny. I remember thinking the exact same thing while the hand was happening. What would he put in 4 bets on the flop and then fold? Odd.

Regarding the trip aces guy... I was thinking he could call one bet (all the way to the river unimproved?) at least on the flop... but the raising seemed insane to me.

[Dire]

He could have had a read on BB. If BB is the type that fastplays vulnerable hands and waits to the turn or tries to check raise with huge hands then the action would make sense. Or if the BB was just generally donkish / overaggressive. And lastly, if he felt there was a good chance that capping the flop would get a free card then he'd definitely have the equity to go ahead and toss in the extra small bet.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
at first I thought his flop play was terrible. On further reflection, I'm not really certain.

[/ QUOTE ]Kurto - Player's flop play was terrible.

If Player gives BB credit for having what BB is representing (a flopped wheel), then Player does not have proper odds to initiate a bet.

Should Player give BB credit for actually having the wheel?

I don’t know.

When BB leads after this flop, I wouldn’t necessarily put him on a flopped wheel. I’d want to get more information. I’d symbolically ask BB if he really flopped a wheel (by raising). And then if BB symbollically replied that he indeed did have the flopped wheel (by making it three bets), I’d start thinking, “Maybe BB really does have the flopped wheel.”

Even if I knew BB bluffed excessively, I’d be wary of the possibility that this time, BB might actually hold the cards his bet represents.

But I’d also be wary of the possibility BB didn’t flop a wheel.

My own solution to the dilemma would be simply to call the 3rd bet of the second betting round, rather than capping. Hero has a fair chance to end up with better than a wheel for high. (In addition, Hero also may make a wheel). But top flopped set alone is sufficient to call the third bet on the second betting round. Hero should expect to usually lose, but to win often enough to have favorable odds to call the 3rd bet. (And there’s still the possibility that BB doesn’t have the flopped wheel, although I really think he does this time).

Hero does not have favorable fresh money odds to initiate a bit himself, but Hero does have favorable odds to call a bet.

As luck will have it, Player hits one of his ideal two card combos on the turn and river, making both a full house and a wheel. And since he did that, his cap of the second betting round may seem like a good move.

It’s similar to pulling the handle of a slot machine the time when a bunch of coins come clanking out. It’s all those other times when you lose your wager that make playing the slots a bad investment.

Buzz

[kurto]

thanks, buzz.

As I believe I made clear, I was the BB in the hand. And I did indeed flop the wheel.

I was playing fairly tight (assuming the person paid any attention which is certainly debateable) so I would think the person should recognize what I was representing.

I recognize that on the turn, he was essentially freerolling me. But off the bat I was confused about his flop.

I think my first instincts were correct... he was making a small mistake on the flop. (it seems to me in limit O8 the mistakes are rarely too large)