50NL 6m: Flop NFD

homeslice · #1 01-04-2007, 08:47 AM

I figure when SB pushes he's got at least a pair and flush draw, but I have outs and a loose villian behind me. Is calling +EV?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($28.10)
Button ($76.70)
SB ($21.60)
BB ($78.65)
Hero ($54.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $19.6 (All-In), BB folds, Hero ???

munkey · #2 01-04-2007, 09:04 AM

This looks like a pure mathematical PStove calc
-assume set/made flush/AQ TP equally likely and QQ+

I'm not sure how to calc this exactly (sounds like a Pokey moment) but at the table I would assume 9 flush outs live
-ignore ace /if he holds a heart cancel each other ~33%equity

30/70 vs made flush (k8s)not JTs
30/70 vs middle set (77)
43/56 vs KQo K hearts
~40/60 vs AQo e.g. clubs

Since he bet x2 pot I'll fold here.

Handreading wise I put him on KQo K hearts as most likely pair+fdraw thought this could also be a baby flush or AQ type of hand 'pushing' to protect vs 1 card draws/set.

Javanewt · #3 01-04-2007, 11:10 AM

I'd fold. You have $2 invested, and while I can't do the math the way the others can, it doesn't seem as if you have the odds to call this.

Skipjack · #4 01-04-2007, 11:31 AM

I would fold. Jacks are probably not outs, aces arent outs if he is holding AQ or A9, the hearts are not all clean outs if hes holding JTh or KTh.

Glasuan · #5 01-04-2007, 11:32 AM

This is a pretty easy fold, you cannot draw for that much. If you got some sort of read on how the SB was playing, it would be a possible call (trying to push his short-stack a lot). But 9/10 times this is a very easy lay down.