Evaluating Button Steals with PokerStove

[UtzChips]

So, I was introduced to PokerStove this week, and have been doing some toying around with it.
Found that Q7 suited has 42% equity against two random hands.
So, let's say 45 hands into the tourney(you have spent the whole time at the same table) you caught AA on the Button twice, won both times; haven't stole much, and when you did open/raise on Button/CO you had much better than Q7s.

Would you open for say 2.5 or 3x BB?

I was thinking so, against proper players in the blinds.

[grafyx]

What does the preflop equity against the blinds hands have to do with a button steal this early in the tournament?

[UtzChips]

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What does the preflop equity against the blinds hands have to do with a button steal this early in the tournament?

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Good point. The blinds are 25/50. I'm thinking JT or KT calls you, the flop comes 972 and they ck; you bet 1/3 the pot and villian calls. Then dud, dud

If Q is top card and villian bets into you, you know you're kicker is killing you.

What I am saying is that if you believe you can play better than them postflop, and have a 42% chance of having the best hand by the river, shouldn't you be playing? Or, should you be looking for something better?

Thanks.

[Squale88]

I think you are misapplying the information that you are gathering from poker stove.

In the first place, I don't see how your equity against a random hand is at all relevant when evaluating a steal. The more relevant information would be the SB and BB calling ranges which are dictated by the personality/style of the players, the distance from the money, the relationship between the blinds and the stack sizes and several other game time conditions.

Once you determine their calling ranges, it is your equity against these ranges that becomes relevant ( or completely irrelevant depending on how likely they are to fold ).

So if the big blind is defending with the top 30% and the SB with the top 20%** then you have a 56% chance that both will fold ( .7 * .8 = .56 ). If you get a caller, then on average you will have about 33% equity against their range ( 32% for SB, 35% for BB ).

Early on in a tournament ( especially a low buy in ) I don't think any of this is relevant. The players are pretty loose and wild and the blinds are small so I don't see much value in early steals. In these low buy in touurnaments, I think it is better to play solid cards early and wait for the crazy donkey that wants to stack off with middle pair and no kicker. Once things settle down and the blinds become more valuable in relation to your stack then I think you can start to seek out stealing opportunities. At that point, finding valuable steal opportunities will be far more dependent on your reads of the players and table conditions than it will on the equity of your crappy Q7o.

**NOTE: In reality, I think later in tournaments most low buy in players defend with a much narrower range than 30/20 but I just wanted some numbers to use as an example.

[UtzChips]

Thanks for the info! Could you answer a few more questions?

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are misapplying the information that you are gathering from poker stove.

In the first place, I don't see how your equity against a random hand is at all relevant when evaluating a steal. The more relevant information would be the SB and BB calling ranges which are dictated by the personality/style of the players, the distance from the money, the relationship between the blinds and the stack sizes and several other game time conditions.

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"other game time conditions" are? I can think of when close to the Bubble, or a major move in cash, as in getting close to the final 18 or Final Table. Then, people will be tighter, and you may just want to steal with Q7s on the Button against tight blind players.

Any others?


[ QUOTE ]
Once you determine their calling ranges, it is your equity against these ranges that becomes relevant ( or completely irrelevant depending on how likely they are to fold ).

So if the big blind is defending with the top 30% and the SB with the top 20%** then you have a 56% chance that both will fold ( .7 * .8 = .56 ). If you get a caller, then on average you will have about 33% equity against their range ( 32% for SB, 35% for BB ).

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Is there a way to evaluate on PokerStove v. 30% and 20% best hands without entering them all in on the SB & BB positions?

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Early on in a tournament ( especially a low buy in ) I don't think any of this is relevant. The players are pretty loose and wild and the blinds are small so I don't see much value in early steals. In these low buy in touurnaments, I think it is better to play solid cards early and wait for the crazy donkey that wants to stack off with middle pair and no kicker. Once things settle down and the blinds become more valuable in relation to your stack then I think you can start to seek out stealing opportunities. At that point, finding valuable steal opportunities will be far more dependent on your reads of the players and table conditions than it will on the equity of your crappy Q7o.

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This is the way I had been playing, however, I usually find myself with nothing more than an average stack when we get in the money and do not build up big, unless I find myself with a monster flop against a player who got a really good flop also.

And, although an avg stack is better than over 50% of the remaining players, I was searching for a way to be in the top 25% more often.
Thanks,
Ken