Cheap Showdown Turns Top Pair into Third Pair

toss · #1 02-05-2006, 08:28 PM

Villain shares the name of a 2+2er that use to post here a lot and plays 3/6 Hold'em now. He posts a lot in BBV now. Probably not him. This one plays more like 28/12/3 in the few rings I've been at the table.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $15.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets...

He fired off the last bet pretty quickly. Easy fold?

Sup bro?

Carmine · #2 02-05-2006, 09:04 PM

Being this is more of a SH situation I would think villians PF range is much larger than average which would make betting the turn a better play.

Should I assume that your plan on the turn was to call an often expected river lead by villian? I would say that between the two overs and flush draw and the small pot folding can't be wrong by much.

KinkyKid · #3 02-05-2006, 09:33 PM

Of course he fired it off quickly, you 3-bet preflop. Then bet the flop. Then check behind on the turn. A reasonable aggressive villain would bet many hands here. I'd bet the turn again and rethink if he raises. If he just calls, I check behind on the river.

bobhalford · #4 02-05-2006, 10:28 PM

A quick bet on the river here means a whiffed turn check-raise a lot of the time. I do this myself when I whiff on a check-raise, like every time. I'm not saying that you are beat, just commenting on this familiar online tell.

Sandberg · #5 02-05-2006, 11:19 PM

#1) Villain raised preflop and wasn't aggressive on the flop. Since he called the flop, I put him on something ace-ish like AT, AJ or AQ.

#2) I agree with your analysis about his quick bet.

Given that the pot is relatively small. I think a laydown is a +ev move here.

somapopper · #6 02-05-2006, 11:40 PM

If you know on the turn that your going to fold to any q, k, or spade (not saying this is wrong) I think a turn bet/fold is good if villain isn't the type to bluff checkraise.

with a 12% pfr you can put him on a reasonably wide range of hands utg and he could have 10s, 8s, a little pair (maybe), or kq with the k of spades. You're probably behind, but with ~5bbs in the pot I think it's worth investing one more to prevent an uncreative opponent from stealing.

Irishboy · #7 02-05-2006, 11:51 PM

I call here 100% of the time and it's probably a leak in my game.

slamhound · #8 02-06-2006, 12:16 AM

Without specific evidence he'll bluff the river, I think you have to bet the turn if you're planning on putting in a bet on a big street, probably folding to a raise.

There are too many scare cards that can fall on the river that can move you towards making an incorrect fold, and you lose too much value from hands that you beat. Checking behind to induce a bluff shouldn't be done unless the villain is drawing fairly slim in a small pot, IMO. Here, even the bare K spades has 12 outs to beat you.

hicherbie · #9 02-06-2006, 12:20 AM

with a poster i would think his range is a tiiiiiny bit wider than usual. id probably bet the turn, not putting any more money into that pot if he crses or donks the river.

youre defensive check got you where you wanted to be...the way its played, id probably call.

toss · #10 02-06-2006, 04:43 AM

Betting the turn would be wrong. Villain would have to KQ for him to have 6 outs. If he has a spade he's going to checkraise me a lot. He would a have checkraised the flop if he had paired the 9s. I don't mind letting him draw to what's going to be 3 or 4 outs on average to let him bluff the river. I also avoid a checkraise from an Ace and a flushdraw.

I ended calling the river bet because my fold to river bet is so high (48) and he showed me AQs.