LC: What needs to happen for the Packers to make the playoffs?

[XXXNoahXXX]

In the recap of the Giants game from last night

"The Giants (8-8) had lost six of seven, and fans were chanting for coach Tom Coughlin's firing last week. Coughlin said he had several "heart-to-hearts" this week with his players, and they responded by putting New York in the playoffs for the second consecutive year -- its first back-to-back appearances since 1989-90 -- unless a highly improbable series of results Sunday allows Green Bay to take the NFC's final spot."

I tried googling and looking here, but couldn't find it.

I'm assuming Rams/Falcons/Panthers all need to lose, but what else?

[crockpot]

Green Bay clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over N.Y. Giants if: Arizona, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota and San Francisco all win and Carolina, Houston and Tampa Bay all lose.

the packers also need to win, of course.

[LionelHutz00]

The Packers don't need any of those teams to lose. They are all eliminated. The Packers get in if they pass the Giants in strength of victory. The only way for this to happen is if Minny and Detroit win, plus pretty much every other team that GB beat has to win, and every team that the Giants beat this year has to lose... I think that if one or two of those games don't go GB's way, it'll still work. Det and Min have to win because GB beat each of them twice.

edit: crockpot beat me to it... but I'm pretty sure that if one of those games doesn't go GB's way, they'd end up tied and GB would still have a chance at the next tiebreaker, which is strength of schedule.

[PokerFink]

I did a quick estimate and gave the Packers about a 1 in 50,000 shot at making the playoffs. See the WAS/NYG thread.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
I did a quick estimate and gave the Packers about a 1 in 50,000 shot at making the playoffs. See the WAS/NYG thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're being a bit generous. Out of curiousity I calculated it using the moneylines from Pinnacle and I came out with a 1:149,309 chance of the Packers making the playoffs.

[NozeCandy]

For the Giants to miss the playoffs, the following things must happen on Sunday:

• Detroit defeats Dallas
• Miami defeats Indianapolis
• Arizona defeats San Diego
• Minnesota defeats St. Louis
• San Francisco defeats Denver
• New Orleans defeats Carolina
• Cleveland defeats Houston
• Seattle defeats Tampa Bay
• Green Bay defeats Chicago

Green Bay would then earn the final wild card spot in the NFC.

-from SI.com

[d10]

That's the simplified version, and what they need to win the strength of victory tiebreaker, which is their best chance they have at the playoffs. They could still win on strength of schedule if strength of victory is tied. Here are the absolute must wins:

Green Bay over Chicago
Detroit over Dallas
Minnesota over STL
Miami over Indy

Additional games which Green Bay needs help on are:
Tampa over Seattle
Houston over Cleveland
Carolina over New Orleans
Arizona over San Diego
San Francisco over Denver

If all 5 of these happen (plus the previous 4 must wins), Green Bay is in through strength of victory. If only 4 from that last group happen, strength of victory will be tied and it will go to strength of schedule, and Green Bay will need additional help with the following games:

Jacksonville over Kansas City
New England over Tennessee
Buffalo over Baltimore
New York Jets over Oakland

Furthermore, if only 3 from that last group happen, and the one that doesn't isn't Tennessee over New England, strength of schedule will be tied, and Green Bay still has a chance at the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed tiebreaker. However to win that one, they'll need to score huge. They're already guaranteed at least 2 places behind New York in points allowed (Washington is set at 342, between New York's 334 and Green Bay's current 359), not to mention there are plenty of teams that can and probably will fill in between them (Seattle, Tampa, possibly Philadelphia and Dallas, maybe Atlanta, SF and Arizona are close but Green Bay can hold them off by shutting out Chicago) so they would need to score a minimum of 47 points against Chicago's defense and that's assuming every other game played this weekend ends in very exact scores. Since the odds of them receiving help like that are about as close to zero as you can get without actually being zero, they'll most likely need to score closer to 100 to win that tiebreaker.

[HajiShirazu]

So basically, this is all stupid because they are roughly equally likely to get in as the 7 seed via meteor or plane crash.

[d10]

Yes, but it gives me something to do on a Saturday night.

[gusmahler]

Way too late. But http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html had an overview of the playoff possibilities before this week.