NLD & NFD vs Top Set: Push?

AABCDS · #1 12-16-2006, 10:54 PM

There are four questions involved with my post.

Villain multitables and is fairly tight. I think it would be safe to assume that he knows what he is doing. His preflop pot raise in early position leads me to believe that he has pockets aces. I am in the BB and decide to call to see the flop heads up.

I figure with my nut flush draw with nut low draw with nearly perfect counterfeit protection is good enough to go to war. I decide upon the check raise to get more money in the pot. After his pot bet of the flop, I am pretty sure he has pocket aces. At this point, I am ahead by a hair, 51.2% to 48.8%.

1. What would you do in this spot and why?

Afterwards, I considered this play:
A. Check calling the flop to see if the turn paired the board, if so, fold.
B. If a low card, low or high club comes, jam
C. If a non-club high card comes, check/call or check/fold

2. Would you consider or have you ever executed this alternative play?
3. Does this alternative play have the stench of weak tight/calling station written all over it?

Maybe my following analysis is too results oriented, but I could have saved myself $46.10 with the alternative play.

4. Do you avoid marginal situations such as these and wait for a better spot or do you love big pots and stacking people and why?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($58)
Button ($63.60)
SB ($3.70)
Hero ($53.50)
UTG ($48)
UTG+1 ($42.75)
MP1 ($23.50)
MP2 (Villain) ($51.45)
MP3 ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 (Villain) raises to $1.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($3.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $3.6, Hero raises to $14.4, Villain raises to $46.8, Hero raises to $51.75, Villain calls $2.90 (All-In).

Turn: ($105.20) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($105.20) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $105.20

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3s 2c Ac 5c (High: two pair, aces and tens).
Villain has 2h Ah 6c Ad (High: full house, aces full of tens).
Outcome: Villain wins $103.15. Hero wins $2.05.

TxRedMan · #2 12-17-2006, 01:40 AM

push and it's not even close here.

if you were very, very deep i would check call the flop and fold that turn card.

your equity is much greater than the simulation you ran b/c there are more hands besides just AA that he plays this way.

push and never think twice about the results in this spot.

zizazziza · #3 12-17-2006, 04:46 AM

push. ur 50% to get low and a little < 33% to get the FD and then u also have a backdoor wheel draw. shove it in cuz ur equity is so high

Split Suit · #4 12-17-2006, 09:54 AM

you push with 100BB stacks apeice for a few reasons.

1) villian does not always have AAxx here. so while the 4pt range of 52/48 does apply here...it is our worst case scenario. and i consider being ahead EE wise in our worst case scenario, a grand chance to put some money in the pot.

2.) the turn card. assume we take the weak/tight line and just call here (a play that i rarely do, and would need a good read and 200+BB stacks to do), we then have an awkward turn card to deal with. say the turn comes our flush (high card, so Kc). being OOP, we now have to PSB. (we could take another line, but c/ring will just about never work here if villian has more than 1/4 of his frontal lobe still intact). we give our villian 2 to 1 on his money to draw to a rough 23%, obv incorrect to chase. while we do make quite a few Sklansky dollars on the call, we wont get the call enuff to make up for the times when he folds, or calls/improves. so this play is kind of -EV, if we factor in a competent villian who thinks u dont bluff.

3.) calling is just kind of spewwy. with 100BB-ish stacks, the jam on the flop is almost always correct. (not to mention, after a PSB by you, and PSB raise by villian, we are almost neck deep in the pot) i understand where ur coming from right now, ur still kinda bashful around variance plays like this...but u need to push this edge. not to mention, sometimes villian might have a different set, could have A23x, or a wrap broadway with clubs. plenty of hands we make good against. embrace the variance, and dont b results oriented...just push those tiny edges whenever possible.

hope this helped...

bbartlog · #5 12-17-2006, 06:07 PM

say the turn comes our flush ... we give our villian 2 to 1 on his money to draw to a rough 23%, obv incorrect to chase... so this play is kind of -EV,

I disagree with this thinking (in general). If the turn provides us more opportunities to force our opponent to surrender pot equity than vice versa, then it's +EV for us to go to the turn and fold him with a pot-sized bet. In this case, villain has slightly better opportunities *if* the pot is still small enough to allow a pot-sized bet or close to it. For example, if we went to the turn with $40 in the pot, there are six cards that would force us to fold (board pairs) and seven that would force our opponent to fold (clubs for the flush). On the face of it this favors us, but the total pot equity villain surrenders ends up being less because he only has ~11% pot equity when the three low clubs hit.
This suggests that the correct line of play (if cards were face up) would be to spike the pot such that it had about $70 going to the turn. In this case there are three cards (the low clubs) that force our opponent to surrender some pot equity by folding, but none where we are stopped from chasing our low to the river.
Net gain of playing this way seems to be about $0.60 more above and beyond the +$1.34 you get by pushing, but I'm not 100% sure of my numbers. Notice though that spiking the pot incorrectly to $40 loses you maybe $0.20 off your expectation...
Again though, relevance is limited when these numbers are so tiny compared to the uncertainty about actual holdings.

selurah · #6 12-17-2006, 07:00 PM

Jam this on the flop all day, every day and it's not close.

Split Suit · #7 12-17-2006, 08:18 PM

bbartlog, my estimation of -EV comes from assuming our villian is understanding of the game, and logical. hence why we dont make money when we improve, and its a thin spot if we dont (assuming no board pr).

as OP stated, villian is multitabling, competent player, with logical understanding of the game. so given that, we have to think he wont spew on the turn as such.

if im commenting on something incorrectly, plz let me kno.

odomination · #8 12-18-2006, 10:00 PM

Yeah, you played it fine, you want to be all in on this flop.