TT Late in Live $300 Tournament

Stumpy · #1 12-12-2006, 01:38 PM

This is the WSOP circuit event 1 in AC this weekend. The buy-in is only $300, and I felt like players were probably not any better than any inexpensive tournament in AC would get.

Blinds are 3/6k, 500 ante. We're down to 31, in the money. 31-28 pay $800, 27+ pays $1200, so pretty big pay jump coming. People are dropping out pretty quickly, and there are a lot of short stacks.

Villan has been very tight, basically folding everything, and generally I think he'd love that $400, but he isn't a complete wuss. I believe he made one 18k standard raise earlier. He has about 45k in chips, about half the average chips.

I have about 90k. I've been playing pretty tight, but more aggressive than most of the table.

7 handed, folds to him, he's 3rd to act. He tries to raise to 36k, but it gets declared a string raise and he can only raise to 16k. It folds to me in the BB, and I have TT.

What do you think his range is?
Fold, Call, or put him All In?
Am I putting him all in because I think he'll fold, or because he'll call and I'm ahead of his range?

If you call: Flop is A63r, you're first to act.

Thanks,
Stumpy

sapsuckah · #2 12-12-2006, 01:46 PM

just want to make sure this is right... he has 45k chips and (supposedly) wanted to raise to 36k?

Stumpy · #3 12-12-2006, 02:09 PM

Yeah, as I said, the players are not fantastic. He had a bunch of smaller denomination chips he left behind and he basically raised all his 1k chips.

Bond18 · #4 12-12-2006, 02:26 PM

Did you have any idea what this massive 6X raise from him meant? No? If not and hes weak/tight and inexperienced i actually might lay down since i often see inexperienced players raising their big pairs 5X+.

If you think his bigger raise is just trying to take the pot down then put him in.

DVO · #5 12-12-2006, 03:23 PM

This is a good example of how important it is to have a read on villain. Many players in live tourneys are way too tight when short stacked, and you need to identify who they are.

A good player would be pushing a wide range there, as he is
quite short stacked. Thus, I would just get it all in pf in a heartbeat there with TT against a good player.

However, a guy who accidently string raises while attempting to raise for ~75% of his stack....instead of just pushing...can't be good. He probably doesn't even think he's short stacked. His range is much smaller than that of a good player here.. Big pair, Big ace. I'll bet his hands were trembling as he bet?

Given your read, I play it like you did. Call pf, and check-fold the flop. Folding pf is ok too, as horribly weak as that feels ( I could never do it...)

I think the ace saved you some chips, or should have.

DVO · #6 12-12-2006, 03:26 PM

There is 13K in the pot preflop. His pf raise is not massive, although it is on the large side if he had, say 200K in chips.

His only option is push/fold, and his lack of understanding of that is critical to OP's thinking here.

Stumpy · #7 12-12-2006, 04:19 PM

In theory 36k may not be an insane raise, but at the 3/6 blind level when 100 is the avg stack, it really was huge. 15-25 was the normal, tending to the low side. Given the short stacks and the bubble, less was just as effective.

I don't want to offer too much of my opinion, since I don't know if it's correct or not, but based on how he acted when he raised, it wasn't a nervous, I have AA/KK please call kind of situation. It was more, I have a good hand, it's near the pay jump, maybe I should raise more so I don't have to think on the flop. There were many times in this tourney I could see someone's neck vein pulsing all the way across the table.

Stumpy

OzCatInHat · #8 12-12-2006, 05:35 PM

Let's look at it from his hand. $16K is about 1/3 of his stack and larger stack in the BB (you). He has definitely got something...AK or a pair. He tried to bet $36K which is 80% of his stack so he would have been pot committed. He may of got excited with KK, QQ or JJ and raising because he got excited but it more likely he has AK or a small pair below your tens.

If he is willing to bet $36K he is effectively all-in so it needs to be analysised as if he was all in after the flop.

So if you call $10K to see a flop and evaluate from there. Let's look at it from his hand. $16K is about 1/3 of his stack and a larger stack in the BB (you) has to act behind him. He has definitely got something...AK or a pair. He tried to bet $36K which is 80% of his stack so he would have been pot committed. He may of got excited with AA or KK and raising because he got excited but it more likely he has AK, QQ, JJ or a small pair below your tens and is trying to bet big to protect his hand and end it pre-flop. Him being very tight and betting big on hands to end it pre-flop means opportunity. The critical point in this hand is the information you gained from his reaction when he was called for string betting and his larger raise was rejected...did he get nervous...didn't care.

If he is willing to bet $36K he is effectively all-in so it needs to be analysed as if he was all in after the flop.

So if you call $10K to see a flop and evaluate from there. So pot odds are $10K to see a 28.5K pot or about 3 to 1. If you think he has any hand but JJ or above this is a mandatory call and probably a re-raise all in.
After the flop, he will probably go all-in regardless. So pot odds, you will need to put in $29K to see a $67.5K pot or 2 to 1. Overall, if he went all in pre-flop you will need to put $39 (his $45 - BB) for a pot of $57.5K (his $45 + blinds and antes) or 1 to 1.5.

Because he is very tight he probably got you covered AA to JJ with a probability of 80% but it will only cost you $10K with 3 to 1 pot odds to call and see a flop with the 5th best starting hand. I would call and evaluate from there unless I was sure he had you covered.