Personal Question From Good Samaritan

David Sklansky · #1 12-06-2006, 04:28 AM

"Have you ever voted in a political election? If so, why did you, given the extremely small probability of your vote mattering?"

Nope. For the reason stated. If I ever did, it would be because I thought it was the right play after weighing, my inconvenience, the closeness of the race (ie the chance my vote would swing it,) and the degree of importance to me to have one side win.

The argument that it is a symbolic gesture to thank those who died for my right to vote, is only reasonable if I was publicly proclaiming that voting is silly and bragging that I don't.

The argument "what would happen if everybody thought that way" again is only reasonable if I influence others not to vote, which I don't.

The comment "well if you don't vote, you have no right to complain", is obviously ridiculous except perhaps if you refrain when your vote would have swung things.

The Dude · #2 12-06-2006, 04:35 AM

David,

How many like-minded people agreeing to also vote if you do would it take to get you to the polls?

chezlaw · #3 12-06-2006, 04:36 AM

Do you take into account that voting may effect future elections as well as the current one. For example an emerging political party/theme would get nowhere if people only voted for it when it could win.

chez

goofball · #4 12-06-2006, 04:40 AM

a) By not voting you do proclaim that your vote is meaningless. Doesn't matter whether or not you do it publically.

b) Convincing others to vote would indeed be a worse thing to but how does not doing it absolve you from not voting? Whether or not you try to get others not to vote, the 'what would happen' scenaro is still a valid one, even if it's an exceedingly unlikely scenario.

Would you make the argument: it doesn't matter if I pollute with my car because everyone else will or won't?

If you think there's fault with the specific form of the example the concept should still be clear.

David Sklansky · #5 12-06-2006, 04:45 AM

"Would you make the argument: it doesn't matter if I pollute with my car because everyone else will or won't?

If you think there's fault with the specific form of the example the concept should still be clear."

For that example to be even close to being analagous, you would have to stipulate that my vote would pick the side that is best for everybody. I don't think you are ready to concede that.

David Sklansky · #6 12-06-2006, 04:46 AM

That's just a probability problem.

David Sklansky · #7 12-06-2006, 04:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you take into account that voting may effect future elections as well as the current one. For example an emerging political party/theme would get nowhere if people only voted for it when it could win.

chez

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never been in that situation and don't expect to be. Theoretically it could affect my decision.

The Dude · #8 12-06-2006, 04:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That's just a probability problem.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm just curious how easy for you the decision to not vote is. Let's say your vote carried a weight of 100, would that be enough? I would think probably not, but 500 or 1000 might.

Care to make a rough judgment?

goofball · #9 12-06-2006, 05:05 AM

Not true. I only have to assert that any given person voting is better for everybody then them not voting.

David Sklansky · #10 12-06-2006, 05:07 AM

First you didn't mean what you asked. You need to rephrase it in terms of the probability my vote mattered. But it's still a math problem for me. Weigh that against my inconvenience and the degree I care about the outcome. But I do not necesarily advocate that others should do as I do.