All in Odds

[zcahv82]

hi guys, I am not sure how the maths works on all ins can you help.

Say for example I have TT and I know my opponent has AA preflop.


Say I have $10, and my opponent has me covered and there is $6 in the pot. It is my turn to act and say I know I push all in knowing that my opponent will call. Is this ever a profitable move. I know from twodimes that I have a 19.3% chance of winning against AA but is this ever a positive EV.

Could someone please explain the maths highlight how negative or positive EV this is.

Many thanks

ZC

[zcahv82]

Sorry guys just read it and is rubbish! Let me try again

hi guys, I am not sure how the maths works on all-ins when you know your opponent is going to call. Can you help.

Say for example I have TT and I know my opponent has AA preflop.


Say I have $10, and my opponent has me covered and there is $6 in the pot preflop. It is my turn to act and I push all in knowing that my opponent will call. Is this ever a profitable move. I know from twodimes that I have a 19.3% chance of winning against AA but is this ever a positive EV.

Could someone please explain the maths highlighting how negative or positive EV this is, and how to work it out for other situations.

Is it ever a positive EV to raise all in when there is money on the pot knowing your opponent will call when you have a weaker hand.


Many thanks

ZC

[Dorado71]

When you push allin you risk 10$ to win 16$, the 6 already in the pot + the 10 your opponent will have to call.
This gives you 1 to 1,6 pot odds.
Your draw odds are roughly 1 to 4.
therefore you will loose 10$ 80 times = -800$, and win 16$ 20 times = 320$. 320-800 = -480$
your EV is -480/100 = -4,8
Since you were a 1 to 4 underdog the pot had to offer you more than 4 times your money if the EV had to be positive.
lets say there was 50$ in the pot instead of only 10.
offering you 1 to 6 on your money, the 50 already in the pot + the 10 your opponent has to call.
you would now loose 10$ 80 times, but now you would win 60$ 20 times = 1200$. giving you a profit of 1200-800 = 400$
Now your EV would be 400/100 = +4

[zcahv82]

Wicked!.

Thanks

[-Nemesis-]

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