AK faces an unexpected bet

[bbbushu]

SB has been pretty aggressive preflop but usually backs down to heat after the flop so i have every reason to maintain initiative.

CO seems passive but also hasn't played very many hands and is yet to raise preflop. similarly, i haven't seen her turn over total rags or anything weird, yet.

neither player had donked before this hand.

UB Limit Hold 'em
$.5/$1 6 Max (6 handed)

<font color="red">Chun Li</font> is OTB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-flop:
two folds, CO calls, <font color="red">Chun Li raises</font>, SB three-bets, one fold, CO calls, <font color="red">Chun Li caps</font>, they call.

(13 small bets)

Flop:
8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB donks, CO calls, <font color="red">Chun Li raises</font>, they both call

(9.5 bets)

Turn:
6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, CO bets, <font color="red">Chun Li...?</font>

(10.5 bets)

*****

call or raise, i'm assuming nobody folds here.

bbbushu

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i think just calling is okay. i wouldn't worry much about protecting your hand against co at this point as he probably only has a handful out of outs vs you and there is a distinct possibility you're not in the lead anymore. if you could feel comfortable about folding to a 3-bet (which i wouldn't especially online at these stakes vs a player i don't have a grasp on yet) you could consider raising the turn but i doubt that has much value.

[BionicComma]

The 6 on the turn is problematic. I would be thinking that the CO has a 6 or a flush draw here because he check-called the flop then bet when the 6 came. Raising the turn could probably kick SB out. His three bet PF has him on a big pair to me and he didn't push the flop much so your K is probably good. CO at the worst has a few outs to beat you and won't fold, so I would call and see the river.

From an EV perspective it favors calling. If you raise, SB probably folds and CO calls earning you a turn bet and a river bet or he reraises in which case you are probably beat and you have to decide if you want to pursue this pot. Assuming that CO has a 6 and goes to the river with you and you dont improve you are still beat and still lose two bets like you would if you get reraised and call the turn but you give yourself a chance calling because you have 5 outs to an A or K. Either way you're fighting over two bets and I think 1 bet over five outs to a winner is preferable to 2 bets and a decision if you are reraised. You can always fold the river if you don't improve and are convinced you're done.

Raising the turn might also earn you a free showdown, but really why risk the extra bet?

As always, Im open to dissenting opinions.

[bbbushu]

bioniccomma,

i think your discussion of this hand is really good!

i agree that sb does not pose a threat to our hand so knocking him or her out only decreases our expectation.

however, i didn't and, on second thought, wouldn't consider CO to be drawing to a flush here becuase s/he plays too passive.

in my opinion, we're either against 6x, 88 or a very strangely played K. if we raise and get three-bet i think we need to reduce our outs to (2) Kings and that's it. villain is never doing this with a different two-pair hand or draw so it is safe to assume that it's 6x and thus our Aces don't help us. also remember that our implied odds would NEVER be good enough to call here because villain will obv freeze up if the K pairs on the board.

looks like the forum thinks this hand is standard. i'll give it until the morning and then disclose [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
bbbushu

[BionicComma]

[ QUOTE ]


in my opinion, we're either against 6x, 88 or a very strangely played K. if we raise and get three-bet i think we need to reduce our outs to (2) Kings and that's it. villain is never doing this with a different two-pair hand or draw so it is safe to assume that it's 6x and thus our Aces don't help us. also remember that our implied odds would NEVER be good enough to call here because villain will obv freeze up if the K pairs on the board.


[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point. With only two outs to the nuts and the suspicion that you're beat, it makes sense to call once and see what happens on the river.

Edit: wouldn't CO raise the flop if she flopped trips?

[jrmarenda]

I'm raising. If I get re-raised then I go into call-down mode.

I'm having trouble putting the CO on a hand. Why would 88 or 66 slow play the flop but lead out the turn? Pocket pair, J's or better likely raise preflop. A6s, KQ, 99, or TT makes the most sense to me. Maybe KQ trying to see if she is ahead or behind? What do others think?

Edit: I posted this before reading the other discussion. Sorry if I repeated what had been said already.

[bbbushu]

[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't CO raise the flop if she flopped trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

i have no idea bc she's prolly retarded.

turn:...

<font color="red">Chun Li calls</font>, SB folds

river:
Some card[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

CO bets, <font color="Red">Chun Li calls</font>

CO shows A6

i say "nh" in the chat

bbbushu

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]

in my opinion, we're either against 6x, 88 or a very strangely played K. if we raise and get three-bet i think we need to reduce our outs to (2) Kings and that's it. villain is never doing this with a different two-pair hand or draw so it is safe to assume that it's 6x and thus our Aces don't help us. also remember that our implied odds would NEVER be good enough to call here because villain will obv freeze up if the K pairs on the board.

bbbushu

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, usually a set of 8's is c/r this turn instead of betting out.

As far as my line...

The SB is drawing to very few outs,if any, if it is anything other than a FD(which isn't folding to two bets). I think calling is best here.

I am not sure what I would put CO on here though. I guess a 6 or maybe they have just picked up FD and are getting aggressive. Hard to know without a read.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising. If I get re-raised then I go into call-down mode.

I'm having trouble putting the CO on a hand. Why would 88 or 66 slow play the flop but lead out the turn? Pocket pair, J's or better likely raise preflop. A6s, KQ, 99, or TT makes the most sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without wishing to be rude, TT/99 don't make any sense at all. We capped and raised the flop after villain had called a bet. That does not say "AQ". It says "I have at least a pair of kings". (It is possible you are pumping a flush draw, but why would she assume that?) KQ makes sense if you think the CO is a bit dim, 88 a little less sense, and 6x very much makes sense.

I guess CO was a bit more likely to have begun with KQ than with 76s/65s/A6s, given that she hasn't played many hands, but the key read on her is that she seems passive.

Our opponents have different ideas about how to play poker. They are mostly not "retards". They can see that there has been a lot of action preflop, and they know that the flop raise probably means you have something that is or beats a pair of kings. (It's possible you have something she beats, of course; you might have raised with AcQc/AcJc, even AcTc.)Passive players distinguish themselves by betting when they think they're definitely ahead. They don't try to find out where they are. They can call down and find that out soon enough.

I wouldn't raise here. I am just costing myself too much against 88/6x (4 more bets instead of 2) and I only gain one extra bet against KQ. I never increase my chances of winning the pot any by raising. I'd need this to be KQ about twice as often as it is 88/6x for this to be a good bet, and frankly, I think it's going to be KQ less of the time.

[jmardo]

raise. possible hands could be QQ or KQs, and raise is pivotal. if CO 3-bets, then i would fold, and i am putting sb on KJc by the way he is calling, his aggressive action pre-flop and call on flop would show he is not trying to scare someone off, so he might even have a stronger hand than what i am putting him on. if they call, you have the pot...if they raise, call, but be very very cautious