call or fold?

[skrangeo]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with :jc :4h
UTG calls, UTG+1 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero (poster) checks.

Flop: :4d :ks :jd ($6, 6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5</font>, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $21, 2 folds, Hero raises to $50, MP1 raises all-in $137.75.

hero _____?

[Eaglebauer]

I'd like to know the answer, too. :P

I don't know but I probably fold.

[ikestoys]

To start off with, if the worst mistake you make is calling all-in with two pair on an unconnected, two suited board with bottom two pair, then you'll be OK.

You need a good read on this opponent to fold here, not to call. With no preflop raise, I think we can eliminate KK or JJ. 44 is a possibility, as is KJ or K4, although they are unlikely given your two pair. KQ,K10 or Kx wouldn't be the craziest thing I've ever seen, Kx with two diamonds or Q10 diamonds would be a reasonable play.

You are getting 3 to 1 odds to call and you already have half your stack in. The answer to the question of calling is based on your answer to this question, based on your read, do you win this hand 25% of the time?

Basically, do you have any read on this opponent?

[skrangeo]

you've been raised not once but twice on the flop, the 2nd being for all of your chips.

do you still think bottom two pair is good?

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
you've been raised not once but twice on the flop, the 2nd being for all of your chips.

do you still think bottom two pair is good?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why your putting in 50% of your stack with the intention of folding.

[skrangeo]

calling his raise to $21 does nothing to define where you stand and also does not prevent another card from falling

[sdfsdf]

either push or fold the flop. i would fold, its a 6 way pot and he probably has a set.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
you've been raised not once but twice on the flop, the 2nd being for all of your chips.

do you still think bottom two pair is good?

[/ QUOTE ]
and
[ QUOTE ]
calling his raise to $21 does nothing to define where you stand and also does not prevent another card from falling

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like you are being devil's advocate or just disagreeing with what someone else says. The simple fact is, once you put in half your stack, you're committed. Without a GREAT read on your opponent, you have to call. It may not work out this time, but it only has to 25% of the time for it to be a profitable play.

Is your read good enough to know you are beat 75% of the time?

Pure chances of him having:
44 (2/45)*(1/44) = 0.083%
KJ (3/45)*(3/44) = 0.454%
K4 (3/45)*(2/44) = 0.303%

Total: 0.84%
Odds: 118 to 1

(Remember, no KK or JJ w/o pre-flop raise)

I'm not sure that the math is 100% correct, but it is on the same scale of folding a set to the possibility of an overset. Would you fold a set to 3 to 1 odds?

Sometimes the poker gods set you up to lose, but sometimes they set you up to win too, you have to be willing to take your chances here.

[ImsaKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
either push or fold the flop. i would fold, its a 6 way pot and he probably has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has the other 2 4's exactly? KK raises preflop, and JJ probably does too? I think KJ and K4 are the hands to worry about. I still get it in because im a station.

EDIT: He can slowplay AK or AA here too.

[Freelancer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
either push or fold the flop. i would fold, its a 6 way pot and he probably has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has the other 2 4's exactly? KK raises preflop, and JJ probably does too? I think KJ and K4 are the hands to worry about. I still get it in because im a station.

EDIT: He can slowplay AK or AA here too.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he can slowplay AA than he can also slowplay KK. (although less likely)

I'd puke and call his push.