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#2
10-23-2006, 09:05 PM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
A shiatty line that I don't wanna bet either way as of right now.
-Brendan 
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#4
10-24-2006, 06:37 AM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
Fall movies suck, as they're relatively low-grossing, and the lines are tight.
No huge plays, not even worth writeups and * recommendations, but took some small positions based on gut feeling and limited rationale. Saw Over 33, just based on pretty good response to Saw 2. Horror's been down recently, but the movies have sucked, and Saw 3 looks decent. Same main cast, and has a following from the 1st 2 movies. Catch A Fire Under 5, just doesn't seem to have much support, with little marketing and a non-compelling story. Bunch of competition for adult movies, with Departed, Flags, and Prestige all still tying up adult eyeballs. Running With Scissors Over 3. Expanding to 600 screens, had a $28k ultra-limited (8 theaters) opening. Big cast, with Annette Bening, Alec Baldwin, Gwyneth Paltrow, Brian Cox, Joseph Fiennes, and more. Anyone else have reasons for the side they lean to?
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#5
10-24-2006, 09:46 AM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
guys inital thoughts im thinking way over on the saw line...
saw 1 = Opening Weekend: $18,276,468 (2,315 theaters, $7,894 average) note that when this movie came out there was relatively low promotion and noone really had any idea what it would be like? (correct me if im wrong there) saw 2 = Opening Weekend: $31,725,652 (2,949 theaters, $10,758 average) almost cracked 3k cinemas and almost made it surely III should blow the first 2 away due to the relatively good reception to saw 2? its also opening with more promotion than any other and in more cinemas (3k+) llabb - you can say horror has been down but when was the last time a decent horror film was released? i think saw captures the entire market. personally i hated saw 2 as i think it completely sold out from the first, but as a horror fan im still seeing this movie in the week it comes out, most likely opening night, just on the chance it redeems itself. i feel most horror fans are similar, and more than that most horror fans actually liked saw 2. scream went I = 6m, II = 32m, III = 34m. LOTR went I = 42m, II = 62m, III = 72m I know what you did last summer I = 15m, II = 16m Ring I = 15m, II = 35m matrix I = 27m, II = 91m, III = 48m (but matrix 2 was generally very poorly received) it seems hard to find any comparable source. i guess it seems like it all depends how well the second was received. anyone care to tell me why it possibly wouldnt break 33m?
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#6
10-24-2006, 09:47 AM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
note: the above post may contain bias due to the fact that im still in love with the first saw movie =P
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#7
10-24-2006, 11:00 AM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
I agree with your general thinking, Eskimo, that Saw 1 and 2 were well-received, so 3 should do even better.
The reasons against are based largely in the crappiness of the horror genre lately. Sure, the movies have been bad, but since when does that hurt horror's opening weekend? Not enough known about how bad they're going to suck yet, so there shouldn't be drops as much as there have been. For example, Grudge 1 was 39 mil and 12k PTA, but #2 just came out and was only 21 mil and a drop of almost half the PTA down towards 6k. Texas Chainsaw 1 (the 2003 restart) was 28 mil and a 9k PTA, while #2 was 18 mil and a 6k PTA. So yeah, I like Saw's chances just because people who have seen the series love it, and #3 returns the same main people and looks solid. But betting on horror has been a losing proposition lately, so you have to be cautious, and people who like the Under have decent reasons. The counter-argument to them is mainly based in "Saw is actually good, whereas The Grudge and TCM suck." But I don't have any real strong positions, and am not that confident in the directions picked, so am interested in others' analysis as well.
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#8
10-24-2006, 01:13 PM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
I don't see much value out there at all.
My first instinct on Saw 3 was under, but then I read that analysis about sequels doing better when they have good buzz. I just don't have a feel for it this week on any of these. I would like to point out though that in order to go over 3 million, Scissors would need a 5000 per theater average or more. Though it looked decent in the previews, critics are tearing it apart.
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#9
10-24-2006, 02:27 PM
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Re: 10/27 movie lines
[ QUOTE ]
when was the last time a decent horror film was released? [/ QUOTE ] In the US? July 22, 2005  PS: the Saw movies are not any good. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Saw III goes under, you heard it here first. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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