Plan to remake the Cubs/Projected "good deal" free agents

[Propertarian]

CLIFFNOTES=ONE LINE=AT THE BOTTOM.

The Chicago Cubs have two strengths: a lot of money for their division and a lot of young arms. Given this, if they want to win, they should A) Spend money and B) Not spend it on the bullpen-with so many good young arms that haven't been tried in the pen yet, the Cubs probably have a very cheap but very decent bullpen sitting in the minors.

It's been claimed by many that they are going to increase payroll-quite likely given the signing of a "veteran's manager"-perhaps to 115-120 million. It was 95 mil at the start of 2005, with the subtractions of Maddux, wood, pierre, Aramis and co., they will have about 55 million $ of players under contract for next year (If anybody knows the exact figure I'd appreciate it). I'm going to assume they increase payroll to about 110 million to start they year-55 million to work with.

( BTW: good deal=high performance to salary ratio

So here's what I think they should do/(also the "projected good deals part"):

Resign Aramis (probably will be for 3-6 million more than he made this year; 14-17 million). He's 28 and plays third, so he's likely to better than Lee or Soriano over the long deals that the three players will get; Soriano will be more than Aramis; Lee will get a similar deal to Aramis from some troglodyte team that just doesn't understand position scarcity (lack thereof at corner outfield/DH).

SP: Sign Hiroki Kuroda AND
Sign Andy Pettite-undervalued because he's coming off a poor season and has pitched in a hitter's park OR Adam Eaton (ditto, but he's coming off an injury and is young).
Given that the Yankees will resign Moose, their will be a huge bidding war on Zito and Schmidt. Schmidt will be the best deal of the three imo; but won't be a very good deal.

2B-resign Walker-too much talk about his defense at second, not enough talk about the impact of his outstanding On base and slugging percentages for a second basemen against righties (quite easy to find the right side of a platoon/lefty masher, even at second; Theriot and Fontenot might be interorganizational options).

OF=Sign Jim Edmonds-they just need a stopgap in center until Pie's ready, and Edmonds will likely top last season's performance. He most of his power is gap to gap so he's a great lefty to have at Wrigley (a park that historically favors righty power). Alternate center fielder: Kenny Lofton.

Trade for Sheffield (or sign him) or Manny: although the Yanks/Sox might think they are getting a good return on this for these players, the reality is is that they are not going to get anything unless they eat most of their contracts (Manny has been waived in back to back offseasons and not picked up; Sheffield played like two games last year.

Both are "bad clubhouse guys" and complain a lot, which also decreases how much teams will pay for them but will not their performance on the field, which is what is important. You don't pay somebody millions of dollars because he plays nice with others. These two players are two of the best offensive forces in baseball.

Both teams need bullpen help; the Cubs would be wise to find takers for Howry-coming off a rare healthy season and Eyre-coming off a rare good season (IMO, they should have traded Eyre, Howry, and Dempster in deadline deals this year given what the market was for relief pitching). Also, I think the Cubs should trade Jacque Jones, given that he just had his best year since 03 and that his contract is terrible if he plays at his 04-05 level.

Now here's what the Cubs will actually do if they increase payroll significantly: let Aramis walk but resign wood, sign two starting pitchers and Soriano, make a terrible trade where they give up too much in terms of players to get Arod OR tejada. One thing that I know about the future is that the Cubs will do the opposite of what I think is smart.

CLIFFNOTES The Cubs should sign Kuroda + Pettite or Eaton, Todd Walker, and Edmonds or Lofton. They should resign Aramis and trade for Manny or Sheffield. These Players are also part of Proportarian's Picks of the Free Agent Litter.

[TheRover]

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Lee will get a similar deal to Aramis from some troglodyte team that just doesn't understand position scarcity (lack thereof at corner outfield/DH).

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In other words, the Cubs will sign him.

I really want to do my own version of this, but I'm tired and kinda don't care anymore.

You got any good sites that keep a constantly updated list of free agents?

[Propertarian]

Yes- this Wikipedia article does it

[Propertarian]

BTW-Todd Walker's OPS vs. righties over the past four seasons=.800. It was .798 last season.

[Propertarian]

I miss baseball a whole heck of a lot; here's my 07 Cubs lineup/rotation:

1. RF-Murton
2. CF-Edmonds/Lofton
3. 1b-Lee
4. LF-Sheffield/Manny
5. 3b-Aramis
6. C-Barrett
7. 2b-Walker
8. ss-Izturis

SP
Carlos
Hill
Kuroda
Pettite/Eaton
Prior

Yes, this can really happen if they just increase their payroll to 110 million and trade Jones + Howry +/or Eyre. Dumping Izturis to anybody who would take his contract might also be wise. He's not much better than replacement level; certainly not 4.5 million better.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
Trade for Sheffield (or sign him) or Manny: although the Yanks/Sox might think they are getting a good return on this for these players, the reality is is that they are not going to get anything unless they eat most of their contracts (Manny has been waived in back to back offseasons and not picked up; Sheffield played like two games last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

manny is due $38m over the next two years. if he were to hit the open market he would get more than that. the red sox are not going to give him away/eat some of his contract. he was waived in back to back offseasons back in 03/04 when he was owed ~100 million.

if the cubs ponied up a great package of players, im sure the red sox would consider eating salary. however, mannys contract is no longer a burden.