32-0 undeafeted in 2006!!!

[JeffO]

Long time poker poster, first time posting in the sports betting forum. I am not a spammer so I won't even post a link to this site, unless everyone is OK with it.

I was first attracted to this site, which claims "2006 Football System Picks Record 32-0" by a advertisement on a sports talk radio show. They also claim on their website that " The 84-0 Football System in 2005 is back for the 2006 Season"

Of course this is a pay site where you must join to get their weekly picks, and I'm 99% sure that they're working some kind of angle, but my curiosity is piqued. So what is their angle and how can they make these claims? Are there any handicapping sites out there that are legit and worth the money?

[Jaguar101]

no no and no

Flip a coin. you are 50/50 and lose the juice. Thats your best bet instead of paying someone.

[WaimanaloSlim]

They claim 32-0 and 84-0?

There are 2^32 ways (4,294,967,296) to pick 32 games and 2^84 (19,342,813,113,834,100,000,000,000) to pick 84 of them. (I used Excel, which is rounding the latter number.) One of these combinations is undefeated.

So Occam's Razor says they are lying motherf-ckers.

[ImBen]

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peeked

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http://www.thefreedictionary.com/piqued

[JeffO]

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peeked

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http://www.thefreedictionary.com/piqued

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Huh? Thanks Webster.

[iggymcfly]

Something I read today that I thought was interesting and relevant to the discussion:

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I also feel I need to address services that claim they have some (for instance) 21-0 super system on a game and tout it as a can’t miss winner. I have a database that goes back to 1980 and I have also found subsets of situations that have records like 21-0. However, I have done research on the predictability of situations and much of that predictability depends on how many factors are used in arriving at a particular situation. Something that is 21-0 probably has at least 10 factors (home, dog, off a win, played on the road last game, opponent off a loss of 6 points or more, etc, etc, etc) and my research tells me that a 21-0 situation with 10 parameters has only a 59.2% chance of covering the next time it applies (which is pretty good, but hardly a lock). Even a more general angle with only 6 parameters and a very good 120-50 ATS record has only a 56.9% chance of covering in the future, given a fair line (it also depends on what type of parameters make up the situation). So, don’t get too carried away because you have a bet based on some high percentage angle. My research has proved that situational analysis does work, but most handicappers use far too many factors in searching for an angle that give them the highest win-loss percentage, and the more parameters a situation has the more it explains what has happened rather than what will happen the next time that situation occurs.

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Basically, if you work backward and use enough factors, you can get a ridiculously good record. (When teams with a 4th-year QB play on the road above 62 degrees before 6 PM, etc., etc., etc.), they're 83-0. I wouldn't put too much stock in something like this. I don't think it's ridiculous that you could find a tout that gives good picks, but no one will win consistently above 60% and most of the time it's cheaper to just find free picks from a good handicapper some place like 2+2.

Note: The thing I read was from a tout site, but the guy sounds like he knows what he's doing. I checked it out after it was mentioned in the Pinnacle Pulse today, and regardless of whether you want to actually pay for picks or not,


sorry, no linking to tout sites allowed -P

[smbruin22]

multiple services (although that would be tough too)..

moneyline on heavy favorites is my other guys how it can be "true"

[iggymcfly]

Ooh, I didn't even think of that. If the 'system' is take the moneyline on every favorite of more than 35 points in college football, I bet 84-0 is very sustainable.

[goofball]

Obviously 'good handicappers' are doing more then flip coins when they pick games. If this guy is picking games with 60% accuracy their chance of picking 116 straight games is 1 in 5.4e25. Raise it to 90% and climbs to about 1 in 200000. In order to have an even money shot at picking 116 straght games (i.e. the chance that they'll correctly pick the next 116 games is 50%) they'd need to be picking with 99.4% accuracy.

[JeffO]

Here is one more claim directly off of their site.


The football betting systems record in 2005-06

116-0

This system is designed to put the odds in your favor!!!

By using this system since 2005 you would of took $100 into over $15,000 with over a 94% chance to win each game