AFC Thoughts

Kneel B4 Zod · #1 10-23-2006, 12:42 PM

Pokerfink does a great job weekly with his NFC thread, so I thought I would try to compliment it with some AFC thoughts. But he does too good a job with his rankings, so rather than try to copy him, I'm going to group my teams a bit different. I put my teams in 3 rough groups, and a basic ranking inside them based on where I think they will end up come playoff time.

Teams with the best chance of finishing #1/#2 in the AFC

Denver, New England, Indy

All of these teams have question marks, but these 3 teams have the best chances of getting the coveted byes and HFA in the playoffs.

Indy might be the ugliest 6-0 team ever. They have a weak run defense and trouble running the ball, but Peyton and the passing game have been good enough to overcome these things. They kind of remind me of a big hitting/no pitching baseball team - they are good enough to kill bad teams, but what happens when they face a good team? Maybe we'll see this weekend @ Denver.

Denver has been incredibly stingy, so much that it's probably unsustainable. So those 9 PPG or whatever are bound to rise, and if/when they do, Plummer better get it going. The running game is fine. The schedule is not easy, though: they still have Indy, @ Pittsburgh, @ KC, 2 games against the Chargers, Seattle, and Cinci.

New England is the quietest 5-1 team in the NFL. Those shouts about Brady not having any WR's are turning into whispers as Gabriel, Jackson, Caldwell, and Watson are integrated (more) into the offense. The defense is 4th in the league in PA. Maroney has been a great pickup, and Dillon looks like 04 Dillon. The big questions are the Kicker, and whether or not Brady and the WR's will continue to improve. If they do, this will be the most complete team in the AFC. If not, an early playoff exit is likely. The schedule is weak, with Chicago, @ Minn, and Indy the toughest games left.

Teams who will be in the playoff hunt

San Diego, Cinci, Baltimore, KC, Jax, Pittburgh, NYJ

Well, if Indy/Denver/NE all win their divisions, only 3 of these teams will make the playoffs. Who will they be?

San Diego is probably the best of these teams. But, the Merriman suspension really hurts. He is the best player on the defense, and will miss @ Cinci and @ Denver. They also still have to host Denver and KC, and go to Seattle. Still, this is the best team here, and I think they get in as a WC.

Cinci and Baltimore will be in a dogfight to win the division. Both have issues - Baltimore still can't score or count on McNair to carry them, even when is he healthy, and Cinci has had their run defense exposed. In addition, the offense isn't clicking like it did last year. They have injury problems. But, I think these are the 2nd and 3rd best teams in this group, and both make the playoffs.

So, I think both Cinci/Denver will finish better than Pittburgh. 2-4 is a tough hole to climb out of, save for some more late season heroics. Giving up 41 points to Atlants is not the mark of a great defense, and Roethlisberger has played 1 good game and has never carried the team. I think Pittburgh misses the playoffs.

I think KC, Jax, and the NYJ will be home when the playoffs start. KC does not have a great defense, and their offense is not good enough to overcome these problems. Jax is a nasty team hit hard by injuries. Losing by 20 to Houston is a bad sign. the NYJ are a surprise, but still will be a stretch to make the playoffs. I think they finish 9-7, just short of the Wild Cards won by San Diego (#5) and Cinci/Baltimore (#6).

See you next year

Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, Tennessee, Houston, and Oakland

JaredL · #2 10-23-2006, 01:45 PM

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and Roethlisberger has played 1 good game and has never carried the team.

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He's played two good games in a row now.

capone0 · #3 10-23-2006, 01:58 PM

Cincy needs 3 WRs notable Chris Henry. Getting Perry back will help. When they have both Henry and Perry back 100%, and if their O-line ever gets healthy they should go near 2005 season levels.

I like SD. I'm a big Gates fan and I think Rivers has been very good. I also liked Merriman but him, Igor and Phillips all being out for 4 weeks +/- is going to really hurt this team. Their pass D still isn't that good and if they can't get pressure they are going to give up a TON of points as seen by the team this week even with Merriman.

Pittsburgh is in a huge hole. I'm not sure if they can get out of it.

I predict Colts will go 14-2. Denver will go 13-3 and the Pats to 12-4.

I think the Pats will have trouble wtih Indy, Minne, Chicago and Maybe Jacksonville. They will win some of those games but the rest of their games is pretty easy and I can't see them losing them. Honestly, Jets, @GNB, Detroit, @Miami, Houston, @Tenn look VERY easy.

The only games I see Indy possibly losing are @Den, @NE, @Dal, Cincy and Philly. I'm losing more and more confidence in Philly but they are still a good team. On the road at NE and Denver will be tough. But I still see them winning most of them. I hope (for my fantasy teams sake) that they don't sit near the end of the year or the Miami game could be an L as well but it looks to be a dog fight for HCA throughout in the AFC.

Denver still has a couple of tough games. Indy, @Pit, @SD (I don't think the SD home game will be much of a struggle with SD's injuries right now), @KC (playing in KC is always tough), Seattle (if Hasselback comes back) and Cincy. They have a tougher road then the Colts or the Pats to end the year but they have proved to be very good against good teams.

Kneel B4 Zod · #4 10-23-2006, 01:58 PM

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and Roethlisberger has played 1 good game and has never carried the team.

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He's played two good games in a row now.

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yes, you're right. for some reason I mentally discounted this week b/c of his injury. now, how he comes back for what is his 3rd injury/setback of the year will be interesting. his team is a hole, and with 2 teams 2 games up, it will be hard to dig out. They'll need to finish 8-2 to make the playoffs, so they can't afford him playing bad.

TheNoodleMan · #5 10-23-2006, 02:02 PM

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Indy might be the ugliest 6-0 team ever. They have a weak run defense and trouble running the ball,

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I haven't seen a single post about it but the Colts made a huge deal at the deadline to acquire DT Booger McFarland from Tampa and it made an instant impact on their run defense yesterday. Portis suched 12 times for 43 yards, and 34 of them came on one play. This adddition moves them back into the category of serious contender.

On the offensive side of the ball, Addai had something of a breakout game with 85 yards on 11 carries. Several of his runs showedcased his ability to break tackles and get into the secondary.

If you didn't see the Colts game yesterday then you missed them playing really well for the first time this year.

Kneel B4 Zod · #6 10-23-2006, 02:07 PM

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I think the Pats will have trouble wtih Indy, Minne, Chicago and Maybe Jacksonville. They will win some of those games but the rest of their games is pretty easy and I can't see them losing them. Honestly, Jets, @GNB, Detroit, @Miami, Houston, @Tenn look VERY easy.

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FWIW, the Pats are -3 @ Minny this week. The Jax game might (probably I think) end up being meaningless for the Jags. Pats will be dogs against Chicago, small favs over Indy I think.

In the rest of those game, they will be 4 - 10 point favorites. Maybe later I'll run the 'expected wins by projected spread' figures, but my guess is that their "EW" at this point is 13.

Pudge714 · #7 10-23-2006, 02:07 PM

Noodleman,
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7703948

KB4Z,
If the Pats bigesst problem is kicking they should be the best team in the NFL hands down.

capone0 · #8 10-23-2006, 02:09 PM

This is true although Portis did get hurt early on and never looked the same. Also Bob f'in Sanders is back next week and the only reason the game was "close" at half was the horrible Special Teams play. In the 3rd they just blasted the horrible Washington Secondary.

Betts was actually very good yesterday, 10 carries for 52 yards although they did give up a 19 yard carry. Was most of this done during the late game drive when the game was over (I didn't pay too much attention).

Peyton, Addai, Marvin and Wayne looked very good yesterday. If their D can step up and if they get HCA and don't come out slow like they did last year in the postseason, they surely looked good today and should be go from here on.

1 scary thing was Peyton getting knocked the crap out of. They almost took off his head. I'm glad for my fantasy team's sake he didn't get hurt.

Kneel B4 Zod · #9 10-23-2006, 02:12 PM

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Indy might be the ugliest 6-0 team ever. They have a weak run defense and trouble running the ball,

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I haven't seen a single post about it but the Colts made a huge deal at the deadline to acquire DT Booger McFarland from Tampa and it made an instant impact on their run defense yesterday. Portis suched 12 times for 43 yards, and 34 of them came on one play. This adddition moves them back into the category of serious contender.

On the offensive side of the ball, Addai had something of a breakout game with 85 yards on 11 carries. Several of his runs showedcased his ability to break tackles and get into the secondary.

If you didn't see the Colts game yesterday then you missed them playing really well for the first time this year.

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I saw this game, and I agree the Colts looked the best they had all year. the run defense was still bad though - 114 yards allowed and 4.8 avg. (and fyi JOA made a post about this trade). McFarland isn't what he once was, although it is a good pickup.

at Denver will be interesting this week. Denver may be able to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down, and really shorten the game.

capone0 · #10 10-23-2006, 02:15 PM

I was thoroughly impressed with the Pats win against Cincy. But the rest of their games haven't been as impressive. They've had the easiest schedule of teams in contention although the Colts isn't much better.

The Pats are 1-1 against possible playoff teams (unless you count the Jets). I'll have to see more of their games against top quality opponents before I think they'll be great in the playoffs. If they play Denver at home or on the road, I think they'd be in big trouble even with Denver's inept offense.