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#1
10-20-2006, 12:19 AM
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Talk me out of this bet
Philadelphia Eagles -247 vs. TB Buckin' Queers.
Philadelphia 6.6 yds/play on offense. Far and away the best in the NFL. 402 yds/game also #1 in the NFL by a slight margin. 29.8 pts/game, 3rd in the NFL Tampa 4.6 yds/play on offense. Only better than Buff, Az, Balt, Cle and Oak. 281 yds/game also 6th worst. 12.4 pts/game, only better than Oak. Defensively Philly gives up 4.7 yds/ play. Tb gives up 5.2 yds/play. Philly actually gives up more yards/game 341 vs 324 partly because the Eagles tend to score so quickly, barely run the ball and average 26:55 TOP. So clearly the Eagles should be favored. However the real reason I like this bet is that barring last year, which I regard as an anomaly due to the injuries of McNabb, Westbrook, etc. and the the T.O. drama, the Eagles have NEVER lost consecutive games under Andy Reid. Also, they are in almost a must win situation if they hope to make the playoffs. Their schedule becomes extremely difficult in the second half of the season. I like Gradkowski a lot and think he is a big improvement over Simms but he won't be able to handle Jim Johnson's blitzes. The Eagles might not cover 5 but the money line seems like it offers very solid value. The Eagles will win this game more than 71% of the time. 
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#3
10-20-2006, 01:34 AM
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Re: Talk me out of this bet
man up and take the spread. iggles will cover with no problem IMO
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#7
10-21-2006, 05:24 PM
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Re: Talk me out of this bet
[ QUOTE ]
No one has anything negative to say about this bet? [/ QUOTE ] Well since you want someone to talk you out of it. The thing about the Philly offense is they're near-totally reliant on the big play. You can be sure they are NOT going to win the time of possession, and could lose it by a substantial margin (the Bucs have been running the ball well lately). Which is okay, *if* they get the big plays. But there's a variance factor there, and obviously the fewer possessions they get, the more you need to fade that factor. It's quite possible that you get a repeat of last week's 1st half vs. NO, in which the big plays don't materialize, the Bucs chew the clock, and you're looking at a comeback on the road against a good coach and a team that's gaining confidence (and don't forget this team did finish 11-5 in a tough division last year). It's also quite possible the Eagles *do* get the big plays early, force Gradkowski to make mistakes, take the crowd out of the game, and cruise to an easy victory. But I don't think that's any *more* likely than the other scenario, not to mention the other oddball possibilities- fluke turnovers, special teams scores, etc. that usually favor the home team. All in all, I don't know why you want to lay -247 on a road team that you know is going to have trouble running the ball and stopping the run. But whatever. You're probably good.
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#8
10-21-2006, 05:29 PM
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Re: Talk me out of this bet
[ QUOTE ]
Also, they are in almost a must win situation if they hope to make the playoffs. [/ QUOTE ] This is not true, also (even if it is, it's doubtful the Eagle players sense it). Nobody is going to run away with that division.
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