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#4
10-20-2006, 12:04 AM
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Re: Cards +220??
+179 on Tradesports. I'm from St. Louis and a huge Cards fan... I will be making a small homer wager on the series even though I just don't see how they're going to beat the Tigers. Hopefully they don't get taken behind the woodshed like a couple years ago against Boston.
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#6
10-20-2006, 12:13 AM
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Re: Cards +220??
Bah, didn't even think to check the lines right after the game because I was so happy the Cards won. Got on at +199 before it went into freefall. I said right after the game that anything around +200, I'd be happy to jump on.
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#7
10-20-2006, 12:39 AM
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Re: Cards +220??
+200 seems about right to me.
The Cardinals would be a 4th place team if they played in ANY of the AL divisions (possibly 5th place in the AL Central, and MAYBE 3rd in the AL West). I was just looking at some computer rankings which place the Cardinals as the 17th best team in the majors - yes this includes post season results. The AL went 154-98 vs the NL this year. That is a 61.1% winning percentage. To put this in perspective, that would be like a team winning 99 games in a 162 game season. That is total domination. The AL Central was 63-27 vs the NL! These statistics are very significant. The chances of two equal teams playing 250 times, and one team winning 150 of those games is 1 in a 1000. The chances of two equal teams playing 90 times, and having one team win 63 of those games is 1 in 10,000! The AL is head and shoulders above the NL this year (and in the recent past). Watching this NLCS, I am amazed at how bad both of these teams were. In the case of the Mets, it was just their starting pitching. In the case of the Cardinals, their lineup is now putrid. Only Pujols can hit. Everyone else either has no power, or has gaping holes in their swing. If Rolen were hitting better (yes, I realize he almost hit a homer tonight) it might be different, but his shoulder seems to really be effecting his power again. Edmonds is a shell of his former self. Their starting pitching is pretty weak. Outside of Carpenter, none of their starting pitchers would be likely to put up a sub 5.50-6.00 ERA in the AL. Carpenter could probably manage a 4.00 ERA. Their bullpen has looked great, but it's really nothing special. The Tigers top 3 starting pitchers would be aces in the NL (yes, this includes Kenny Rogers). The Tigers have home field advantage. The Cardinals were a terrible road team. The Tigers don't depend much on their DH, and so their lineup won't suffer much when they play in St. Louis. Somewhere between -230 to -200 for the Tigers seems about right to me.
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#10
10-20-2006, 01:12 AM
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Re: Cards +220??
I certainly agree that the Tigers are the better team and the AL has been better than the NL all year long. But I do think Carpenter's a legitimate ace in either league, Suppan's pitching absolutely lights out, and Weaver's not the same pitcher he was in New York.
I think the starting pitching + Pujols gives the Cards a 35-40% shot at winning the series and puts the fair line in the +170 to +180 range. Yeah, if they try to bat Encarnacion cleanup again and Preston Wilson in the 2 hole again, they're screwed, but if Rolen can return to pre-injury form (which I think he can. For all the talk about how he couldn't hit a high fastball, he jacked that ball that Chavez saved tonight), and they can find a spot for Spezio in the lineup, I think the Cardinals have a good chance. Again, I'm by no means saying they're as good as the Tigers. They're not. If they were playing a 21-game series, they'd have almost no shot. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them take four games, especially with the Tigers coming off a layoff that's just a little bit too long and has to be leaving them a little rusty.
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