Interesting turn spot

Mig · #1 10-10-2006, 05:53 PM

This hand took place on party 6 max. There is 2 donkey in the game and both of them are involved in this hand.

You have ATo and have the button. First bad player limps and you raise. Strong player 3 bets from sb and bb(bad player) call along with the other bad limper.

Flop is rainbow Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Sb bets, and everyone calls.

Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Now SB checks, BB bets (he is usually passive oop) and the other donkey raises. Now you are facing 2 bets with top str8 but you are almost sure (95%) that SB have a set here.

Some of you will say, how can you be so certain SB has a set so here are my thoughts. He most likely won'T reraise a hand OOP like KQ, QJ, when he knows BB is loose and UTG limper is loose too. If he had AQ or AK, he would have bet 100% of the time. He might even cold call something like 88,99 since he most likely thinks it will never get headsup with that line up and will wait for my continuation bet to raise a good flop.

Now what is my plan here.

Ian J · #2 10-10-2006, 06:08 PM

I think coldcalling is ok here because if you 3 bet the pot then the SB and original bettor are going to come in (most likely) and now the other guy's gonna 4 bet it. This is all making the pot huge when you could be in there looking at 1/3 of the pot if the board doesn't pair.

However, if the original bettor is out of line and now you have half the pot, then you'd want to 3 bet it here to charge the SB the max.

Interesting spot. I suppose the real key here is the turn bettor and his willingness to get out of line here. The more prone he is to making a bet here without an A, the more likely it is that you should raise.

Mig · #3 10-10-2006, 06:12 PM

Not very likely from my read. I think it's a 3-way chop if the river doesn't pair a large amount of time.

Mig · #4 10-10-2006, 06:35 PM

Btw it's party 100/200...

Ian J · #5 10-10-2006, 07:06 PM

Yeah realized the read after I posted. In that case, I would think that you want to coldcall and try to not have 4 bets go in here. However I don't think you're gonna have that happen. So maybe it's better to 3 bet it and hope SB makes a mistake and throws his hand away.

Obviously it's very close. I don't even know if it matters one way or the other. All of a sudden after rereading your reads I'm wanting to 3 bet.

DcifrThs · #6 10-10-2006, 10:18 PM

3bet.

you'd much rather have a 3 way chop and have the sb make the mistake of tossing his hand getting 3:1 on the turn + whats in the pot if he has a set.

if he doesn't have a set, he's dropping the 2 pr or whatever he has anyways to 2 bets.

Barron

mike l. · #7 10-10-2006, 10:30 PM

not much to ask here. it's obviously a 3 bet with a set in there because you want to charge him the most to draw and draw he will. 3 bet and there's no other play.

flawless_victory · #8 10-10-2006, 10:31 PM

uhmmm, the set is more than a 3:1 dog so u guys still wanna punish him as much as possible...
also some ppl might incorrectly fold the set for three cold (maaaybe).

Hielko · #9 10-11-2006, 12:03 PM

Easy 3-bet, let the set pay the max for his draw. Also note that he doesn't have 10 outs, you have a T and the other opponents will have some outs to most likely so his draw isn't as strong as it looks like at first sight.

Dazarath · #10 10-13-2006, 05:04 AM

In the worst possible situation, if the SB has a set with 9 outs, and we have a 3-way chop, our equity is still slightly above 25%. Once we factor in the chance that one of the other two players has an ace-broadway hand (or even some junky two pair hand), our equity goes up. Plus, if one of the donks is freaking out with his two pair type hand, we want to charge his 4-outer. I see no reason to not 3-bet, and then to fold if the river pairs the board and the SB wakes up.