The Effects Of Full Tilt's Decision

[MannyIsGod]

Now that it seems that Full Tilt is staying in the market for good, I was wondering what people thought about how this changes the current situation. I see 2 prospective dominos that could be next in line to fall.

First, its been proven time and time again that where there is a market for a good or a service no piece of legislation can stop the force of the market. If you look at anything historicaly subject to some form of prohibition you will see a pattern where the service or good finds its way into the marketplace regardless of any legal roadblocks.

Therefor, whether any of the major poker sites stay around, the demand is so strong that it will leave a huge vacuum that will eventually be filled by a company willing to offer that service.

If a major company like Full Tilt is ready to proceed with (apparent) complete disregard for the US's new law, then instead of a vacuum that will be filled by lots of smaller companies, you'll see Full Tilt rocket to an enourmous lead in the industry. With the capital generated in the US market, they'll be in prime position to be dominant in all other markets as well. So not only will they have a lead on all of the other companies simply because the others won't service the US, but they'll take a lead over their compeitiors in other markets as well.

That has to put a ton of pressure on companies like PokerStars not to pull out of the US market. By announcing their (apparent) intentions to stay in the US market, Full Tilt may very well force other companies into staying in the market or risk being put at a very large disadvantadge in other markets as well.

I'm not an economist, and much of this is speculation so take it for what its worth.

Secondly, if a large number of companies choose to ignore the US legislation and render it impotent, that puts pressure on the government to find a way to regulate the industry and perhaps tax it. In a society where nothing speaks lower than the almighty dollar, the regulation is inevitable simply because of the tax revenue to be gained. If this current law proves to be little more than wasted ink and time, then I think there could be a groundswell of momentum torwards legitimacy and taxation.

I may be reading far more into this email than is actually there, but considering that Full Tilt is probably the 3rd largest player in the American poker market, this could be the domino that starts the fall of all the others in our favor.

[redbeard]

if full tilt is the only major player that stays in the american market then we may actually see a consolidation that works out to be better for pros than we had before. as an example -- before most of the fish and pros were split between party, full tilt, stars and a few other sites, but if full tilt is the only one to offer its services to u.s. players you will find a total consolidation of everyone at this site. while i'm sure other sites like wpex, bodog, and others will remain minor players in the game we may actually find that the market itself is better for the pros if it is easy enough for the average player or degenerate player to access full tilt. the more interesting question may be will the pros that currently endorse full tilt be forced to pull their endorsement or will they continue their support and risk possible prosecution. however the dust settles i hope that one site takes the lead and doesn't screw it up consistantly the way party did.

[E.Z.]

i'm interested to see if party is up to something here. if legal, i could party management creating another company. this other company would either be a skin and play with party players OR if that's not allowed the seperate company would be a stand alone and look and feel 100% like playing at the old party.
this new company/skin would rise to top 3 in a hurry with a minimal amount of advertising.

[chicagoY]

interesting idea but i don't think they're that smart.

[Some Pig]

Party has mucked in first position, Stars has checked in the middle, FT has gone all in from last position.

If Stars folds, not only will FT win the US market but the rest of the world as well because this event would attract the non-US players into FT which will now have the highest volume of players.

Stars has to call the allin bet. If they don't then they would be shortstacked. It would serve their long term interest if the commit to the US market.

[Chaos_ult]

[ QUOTE ]
Party has mucked in first position, Stars has checked in the middle, FT has gone all in from last position.

If Stars folds, not only will FT win the US market but the rest of the world as well because this event would attract the non-US players into FT which will now have the highest volume of players.

Stars has to call the allin bet. If they don't then they would be shortstacked. It would serve their long term interest if the commit to the US market.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Some people play too much poker (apparently there IS such a thing).

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
if full tilt is the only major player that stays in the american market then we may actually see a consolidation that works out to be better for pros than we had before. as an example -- before most of the fish and pros were split between party, full tilt, stars and a few other sites, but if full tilt is the only one to offer its services to u.s. players you will find a total consolidation of everyone at this site. while i'm sure other sites like wpex, bodog, and others will remain minor players in the game we may actually find that the market itself is better for the pros if it is easy enough for the average player or degenerate player to access full tilt. the more interesting question may be will the pros that currently endorse full tilt be forced to pull their endorsement or will they continue their support and risk possible prosecution. however the dust settles i hope that one site takes the lead and doesn't screw it up consistantly the way party did.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that we don't really need 10 or 20 or 40 different poker rooms. Right now, there are a lot of perfectly decent, well-run poker rooms like Ultimate Bet that don't do much traffic simply because the economy is so dispersed. One clear market leader -- there's always going to be a clear market leader the way that this industry works -- coupled with reasonable second, third, and fourth alternatives, should be enough to provide reasonable competition in the industry.

That said, the one advantage to having a large number of sites is the sheer volume of advertising that they engage in. When say Mansion Poker runs an advertisement, yes that's an ad for Mansion Poker in particular but its also an advertisement for internet gambling in general. Without that advertising, the supply of "dumb money" eventaully dries up.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

[ QUOTE ]
Party has mucked in first position, Stars has checked in the middle, FT has gone all in from last position.

If Stars folds, not only will FT win the US market but the rest of the world as well because this event would attract the non-US players into FT which will now have the highest volume of players.

Stars has to call the allin bet. If they don't then they would be shortstacked. It would serve their long term interest if the commit to the US market.

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you say FT's range is here? Has FT been playing it's lag or tag game recently?

[MLSchaff]

The way FT throws its money around with advertising, its ridiculously huge lineup of pros, and its stellar first deposit bonus, I'd say its always been playing a LAG game.

Pokerstars - are you listening? CALL. And throw some bonuses out there for us.

[schlucky1]

I'm rooting for Ultimate Bet. Given software (emphasis on software), game selection, bonus, and rakeback, UB is way better than FTP. I don't understand why more people don't like UB (maybe they should get rid of Phil H., lol).