Playoff Baseball

mrbaseball · #1 10-02-2006, 07:36 PM

Fade the Yankees! Detroit may have stumbled down the stretch but this is the playoffs where anything can happen in a 5 game set. +290 is ridiculously generous. I realize the Yankees won the season series against the Tigers winning 5 of 7 but I certainly wouldn't lay 3-1 of that happening again. After 162 games the Yankees only ended up winning 2 more than the Tigers. This line has a whole lot of +ev in it.

I really like the Tigers tommorrow at +185. Robertson didn't have as good of a record as Wang but if you look at the internal numbers he surpassed him. The Yankees hit better but so do a lot of other teams watching from home this October. My model has this game with just a very slight Yankees advantage as opposed to the line which has a very strong Yankee advantage. I love playoff lines [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like the Cards tommorrow too. Carpenter is simply better than Peavy. Cards have had their problems down the stretch too. But getting Carpenter at +109 looks good to me. Especially since I think he should be a slight favorite.

Yankees could very well sweep Detroit but the ball bounces real funny sometimes and at +290 it's worth a shot. Fading the Yankees in the playoffs has been a real profitable strategy the past few years.

dixie_flyer · #2 10-03-2006, 10:00 AM

I agree with you on the Yankees, both in the series and in game 1...I thought that Wang should have been around -120...as for the series, my calculations show that the Yanks should be -140 or so, so I agree that taking the Tigers +290 is worth a shot...Detroit might even be favored in games 3 and 4 (or at least they should be imho), and they get to face Wang twice in the series...and Wang's not the kind of pitcher who typically has success in the postseason

As for the other series, just looking at it statistically, I had Minny at -165 and both SD and the Mets at around -135...not enough of a differential from the line to make a wager

thing85 · #3 10-03-2006, 11:53 AM

+297 now for DET at Pinny. This has to be +EV.

bills217 · #4 10-03-2006, 12:17 PM

+310 at BetCris, +213 for Game 1.

dixie_flyer · #5 10-03-2006, 12:22 PM

fwiw, I had Peavy at around -125 against Carpenter, so imho the line looks about right...I won't dispute that Carpenter is better than Peavy, but I give a big edge to the Padre bullpen...that and making an adjustment for playing at home tilts things toward Peavy in this one imho

mrbaseball · #6 10-03-2006, 01:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
+297 now for DET at Pinny. This has to be +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

The Baseball Tonight boys just predicted a Yankee sweep so Detroit is a lock [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

fnurt · #7 10-03-2006, 01:06 PM

Any idiot can see the Yankees will sweep. That's why the line keeps moving and moving and moving (reminds me of people buying Google at 400). That's also why this is like the BSP pick to end all BSP picks.

mrbaseball · #8 10-03-2006, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
had Peavy at around -125 against Carpenter

[/ QUOTE ]

I came up with Cards about -110 here. I do like the Det/NY game today a lot more but I think Cards have slight value at this price.

Thremp · #9 10-03-2006, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Any idiot can see the Yankees will sweep. That's why the line keeps moving and moving and moving (reminds me of people buying Google at 400). That's also why this is like the BSP pick to end all BSP picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stick to sports... GOOG has a 52 week high of 475 and is currently at 402. Not exactly a terrible choice to pick up at 400.

fnurt · #10 10-03-2006, 04:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any idiot can see the Yankees will sweep. That's why the line keeps moving and moving and moving (reminds me of people buying Google at 400). That's also why this is like the BSP pick to end all BSP picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stick to sports... GOOG has a 52 week high of 475 and is currently at 402. Not exactly a terrible choice to pick up at 400.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, yeah, people thought they were brilliant to pick up Sun at 80 too. You want to buy Google at 400 hoping it will go to 500, hey, good luck to you.