odds of being beat with second nuts flush

[poker_f]

Hello i'm new in this forum. ANd i have a difficult question to ask.

What are the chanches of this following event.

Someone with the nut flush (A) aigainst someone with the second nuts flush (K) on a board with only 3 suited cards.

[ScottHoward]

100%

[PantsOnFire]

For me anyways, it would low enough not to worry about it. I would worry about another of the suit showing up however, so I bet this pretty strong usually depending on the circumstances.

If you are thinking about laying this down, I can't really think of any good scenarios to do this. Some hands you are destined to lose all your chips and you just have to accept that because all the other times will more than make up for it.

[AaronBrown]

You have to define the situation carefully. Assume you have Kx suited, and the board contains exactly three suited cards. There are 8 more unseen suited cards. That makes 7 possible Ax suited hands. There are 45 cards you haven't seen which can be formed into 45*44/2 = 990 different hands.

That means if you deal two cards off the top of the deck, the chance is 7/990 = 0.7% that they are Ax suited. If there are nine other players at the table, the chance that one of them had Ax suited is 63/990 = 6.4%.

But you're not betting about two new cards dealt from the deck, you have some information from the betting. For example, if the board is unpaired and a guy makes a large bet, what could he have? He knows you could have a flush. He could be bluffing, or he could be confident you don't have the flush, or he could have a low flush, or he could have the nut flush. If there's a pair on the board, he could have a full house or quads. Based on his betting on this hand and his general play, you have to make a judgment about which of these is most likely. Ax suited is likely enough that you can't ignore it, if that hand fits his betting.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
Ax suited is likely enough that you can't ignore it, if that hand fits his betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
Putting aside all of the different possible scenarios, I don't see very many good reasons to lay down the second nut flush on an unpaired board (i.e. at the river or anytime before).

I find that having the second nut flush at the river with a non-paired board is analogous to having KK preflop and deciding if you should lay it down because you fear AA(Heads up situations). With no solid reliable reads, there are very few circumstances where I would lay down either.

[AaronBrown]

For me it depends on the player and the betting. At one extreme, this is a straightforward and tight player who doesn't fool around much. He called a moderate raise preflop, called on the flop and made a big raise when the last suited card appeared. No card above a nine is on the board. In this circumstance, it's hard to figure out what he has, if not the Ace flush. I'm not saying I lay down, but I think about calling a big bet relative to the pot.

With other players and other situations, I certainly call. I might even raise.

[_D&L_]

odds when it matters are different from odds of randomly occuring if no one folded. Your opponents select cards to play likely to make nuts, u don't see the flop when they fold.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello i'm new in this forum. ANd i have a difficult question to ask.

What are the chanches of this following event.

Someone with the nut flush (A) aigainst someone with the second nuts flush (K) on a board with only 3 suited cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the board has 3 to a suit, and you have the second nuts, you beat 21 of 28 possible flushes out there. You lose to 7 possible nut flush combinations.

Example:

You have KJs on a 962 suited board. You are losing to AQs, ATs, A8s, A7s, A5s, A4s and A3s - 7 hands.

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
Putting aside all of the different possible scenarios, I don't see very many good reasons to lay down the second nut flush on an unpaired board (i.e. at the river or anytime before). I find that having the second nut flush at the river with a non-paired board is analogous to having KK preflop and deciding if you should lay it down because you fear AA(Heads up situations). With no solid reliable reads, there are very few circumstances where I would lay down either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't lay it down, but don't play it like the nuts either because it isn't. In NL if there is a lot of money left to bet, and the opponenet has a good chance of holding the nuts just call his bet. Reraising is just asking to lose your stack.

Paul