This is definitely a positive EV bet, right?

[IceColdAces]

I'm a huge Oakland A's fan and a buddy of mine is a huge Angels fan. He kids me all the time about how the A's choke every year down the stretch (and righfully so), but I haven't been too worried this year with their magic number down to 2. Well after the A's blow up yesterday in Seattle he accepted this bet:

If the A's don't clinch before they play the Angels for 4 games this weekend the Angles would have to win all 4 games to win the division. I laid him 10-1 odds on that happening. He actually wants to bet $500 for $5000 on this. I accepted. I know the A's are chokers, but wouldn't most of you accept this wager?

Thoughts please!

[MEbenhoe]

Yes this is a great bet, Baseball Prospectus currently has Oakland's odds of winning the west at about 98%. Your bet only puts them at a 91% chance.

[BobJoeJim]

So if the A's clinch before the Angels series then the bet is off? And if the bet is on, you're laying 10-1 that the A's don't get swept in a four game series in Anaheim?

Or are you laying 10-1 on Oakland to win the division? Because that would DEFINITELY be +ev.

[IceColdAces]

The bet in only on if the A's don't clinch before the series with the Angels. How does this change the odds?

[SunOfBeach]

If the games are roughly 50/50 (which they are), then the chance of the angels sweeping the 4 of them is .5^4 = 6.25%... or in odds, (1/2)^4 = 1/16 which is 17-1. Laying 10-1 is a huge +EV bet for you.