MLB Futures : Hedge?

[THAY3R]

Damn these oddsmakers!

I made 2 future bets this year, and both come down to the last day!

Astros Under 82.5 500 to win 550

Yankees Under 97.5 525 to win 500

So, what do you guys think, should I hedge, or be a man?

[K-Slay]

I don't know the lines, but it seems like any kind of hedge will kill a large part of your profit.

[crockpot]

not really a large part. the house edge on a baseball money line is under 2% assuming you choose a low juice book.

OP, ask yourself if you'd flip a coin for $500 given a 2% edge, and you have your answer.

[MEbenhoe]

You could bet 400 on Toronto at +158 and be up $107 if Toronto wins and $100 if Yankees win, but you're taking an EV hit of about $80-$90 for lowered variance.

Can't find a line on the Houston game yet.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
You could bet 400 on Toronto at +158 and be up $107 if Toronto wins and $100 if Yankees win, but you're taking an EV hit of about $80-$90 for lowered variance.

Can't find a line on the Houston game yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't see why this is an $80-90 hit. the yankees are much better than 50-50 to win tomorrow's game, else the money line would not be +158. it might be more like a $10 hit.

don't expect a houston line until tomorrow morning, as the books have avoided overnight lines all weekend on games where they don't know if the game is meaningful until later.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could bet 400 on Toronto at +158 and be up $107 if Toronto wins and $100 if Yankees win, but you're taking an EV hit of about $80-$90 for lowered variance.

Can't find a line on the Houston game yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't see why this is an $80-90 hit. the yankees are much better than 50-50 to win tomorrow's game, else the money line would not be +158. it might be more like a $10 hit.

don't expect a houston line until tomorrow morning, as the books have avoided overnight lines all weekend on games where they don't know if the game is meaningful until later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow you're right, I really didn't think this through, and forgot to take into account the $525 loss when the Yankees win and he didn't hedge. Including that in the calculation, hedging is actually the better option EV wise.

Yankees at -170 to win game puts them at about 62%

.62 * -525 + .38 * 500 = -$135.5 vs a guaranteed +$100

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
You could bet 400 on Toronto at +158 and be up $107 if Toronto wins and $100 if Yankees win, but you're taking an EV hit of about $80-$90 for lowered variance.

Can't find a line on the Houston game yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has Yankees under. Meaning he's basically betting on them losing tomorrow, and thus on Toronto winning. To hedge he must bet on the Yankees to win tomorrow. Without going into the numbers, both hedging and letting the bet ride are -EV, but hedging is more -EV.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could bet 400 on Toronto at +158 and be up $107 if Toronto wins and $100 if Yankees win, but you're taking an EV hit of about $80-$90 for lowered variance.

Can't find a line on the Houston game yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has Yankees under. Meaning he's basically betting on them losing tomorrow, and thus on Toronto winning. To hedge he must bet on the Yankees to win tomorrow. Without going into the numbers, both hedging and letting the bet ride are -EV, but hedging is more -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love how backwards and confused my thinking has been this entire thread from betting on the wrong team, to calculating EVs wrong. This is why I dont make bets late at night [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[THAY3R]

Why are the Yankees such heavy favorites even after they've clinched home field?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are the Yankees such heavy favorites even after they've clinched home field?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sports bet much?