Factoring in unlikely scenerios

Raliegh · #1 09-25-2006, 04:33 PM

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800
(Ante: t25)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t12883
UTG+1: t10922
MP1: t13173
MP2: t12143
MP3: t7407
CO: t16757
Button: t8774
Hero: t9738
BB: t16536

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t800 (pot was t1425), MP1 folds, MP2 calls t800 (pot was t2225), 2 folds, Button calls t800 (pot was t3025), Hero raises to t3000, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t2200 (pot was t6025), MP2 calls t2200 (pot was t8225), Button folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t10825, 3 players)
Hero is all-in t6713, UTG+1 calls t6713 (pot was t17538), MP2 raises all-in t9118. UTG+1 folds
Uncalled bets: t2405 returned to MP2.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t30964, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t30964)

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t30964, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t30964)

Results:
Final pot: t30964
Hero shows Ks Kh
MP2 shows 9s As

Ok, so when this happened to me, I thought it was a horrible, horrible call and a very unlucky bad beat, but the more I thought about it, I realized villain has decent pot odds and quite a few outs, he just happened to hit one of his more improbable outs.

Can someone check my math on this?

Villain's pot odds: 3.6:1 (24251/6713)
Villain's obvious outs: 11 (3 aces and 8 spades)
Odds of catching A or spade in 2 cards: 2.4:1 (1/(1-(36/47)*(35/46))

I'm not sure how to deal with what actually happened (runner runner inside straight,) of which he has two (76 and 34) or the following also unlikely scenerios:
him catching trip 9's
me catching a K if he makes trip 9's
me catching a 2 or K if the 2s falls
me catching a K if he catches an A

AaronBrown · #2 09-25-2006, 07:30 PM

Considering only the two hands:

Preflop, he wins 538,170 and ties 7,635 of 1,712,304 possible boards for 32% equity.
Postflop, he wins 440 of 990 turn/river combinations for 44% equity.
Postturn he win on 14 of the 44 outstanding cards, for 32% equity.

Of course, he doesn't know what you have, but preflop he certainly has a call with A9s and two players in the pot. Your play is fine, your bad luck is MP1 who calls preflop and the postflop, but folds rather than put 2,400 into a 36,000 pot; no hand could justify that.

Without MP1, MP2 probably folds preflop or postflop. However, after the flop betting, you're in great shape. You've put 9,738 for a 56% chance of winning a 30,964 pot. MP1 folded with no risk to you. But MP2 should be happy with the same 9,738 investment for a 44% chance of winning a 30,964 pot. Both of you are in good shape due to the weak loose play of others, especially MP1.

After that, it's a coin flip with a slight advantage to you. You lose.

Raliegh · #3 09-25-2006, 08:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Considering only the two hands:

Preflop, he wins 538,170 and ties 7,635 of 1,712,304 possible boards for 32% equity.
Postflop, he wins 440 of 990 turn/river combinations for 44% equity.
Postturn he win on 14 of the 44 outstanding cards, for 32% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]Did you use Pokerstove to get these?

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, he doesn't know what you have, but preflop he certainly has a call with A9s and two players in the pot. Your play is fine, your bad luck is MP1 who calls preflop and the postflop, but folds rather than put 2,400 into a 36,000 pot; no hand could justify that.

[/ QUOTE ]It's worse than that, even, he's only got 1100 or so left. I hope the bastard folded 9T.