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#1
09-23-2006, 09:32 PM
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Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
Post 2 of the day that may draw heavy criticism. Stars 80 dollar satellite for 1k WCOOP seat, mid way through. Blinds 75/150. ave stack about 2.5k. I have 4100 going into the hand opponent about 4900. I'd been raising quite a bit in LP and this opponent had reraised me pre a number of times and i let go every time.
Dealt to hero Ad Td. Preflop: Folds to hero on CO, hero raises to 450, folds to SB, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 2h 4h 5c SB checks, hero bets 700, SB moves all in, hero calls. First of all let me say i pretty much never make this call, ever. But heres how i broke it down. Villian would certainly reraise AJ+ pre flop as well as the vast majority of pairs, beleiving i'll lay down. A cold call from AA is possible, but if thats so he has no reason to move in here. A set almost never plays this fast. I put him on a hand like JT/QJ/KQ and i think he was to good a player to call a raise with say A5s. Results after discussion. Thoughts? 
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#2
09-23-2006, 10:14 PM
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
i usually just let this go. but i'm not good at making these calls. i could see a call maybe with AK but AT is questionable.
i agree SB likely reraises pf with AJo+ but you never know... add A2s-A5s. which could easily call a loose pf raise. pps too, and now the board offers FDs/sd/sd+pair/overpair. if i had a read on somebody, i'd rather use it my advantage in a better spot than this. its pretty marginal drawing to 6 outs at best if wrong. the real question is how often are you right to call? once we got that, we can do some math. i'd say the chances of you being right are 25%?
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#3
09-23-2006, 10:32 PM
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
[ QUOTE ]
i usually just let this go. but i'm not good at making these calls. i could see a call maybe with AK but AT is questionable. i agree SB likely reraises pf with AJo+ but you never know... add A2s-A5s. which could easily call a loose pf raise. pps too, and now the board offers FDs/sd/sd+pair/overpair. if i had a read on somebody, i'd rather use it my advantage in a better spot than this. its pretty marginal drawing to 6 outs at best if wrong. the real question is how often are you right to call? once we got that, we can do some math. i'd say the chances of you being right are 25%? [/ QUOTE ] One thought. I see little difference here between AK and AT in this situation. I can promise he reraise AJ+ almost every time pre.
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#6
09-23-2006, 11:05 PM
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
A bit more than 3:1 dog. chop possibilities.
You're only beating trash here, and it may be air. In that case, you're way ahead and have him dominated. Weird spot, I'm not sure I like it. I'm not sure I dislike it either. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#8
09-23-2006, 11:34 PM
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
33, 66, 77 (too strong), Ahxh, Kh with another broadway h.
All of those hands would play it the same no? Even if you do get it right and he was on a complete bluff you have a good shot at getting outdrawn. Complete bluff has a 25% shot at outdrawing you. So you are anywhere from 75%-drawing dead. Huge range and you can make a case for either end. My read has to be very very very good to make this call. Another thought maybe he was trying a delayed steal. Considering you have offered no resitance to his resteals. He wanted some more chips from you (maybe he read you as weak) so he would let you put a cbet in then take the pot. Problem with that scenario is he would be much stronger then you originally put him on.
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#9
09-23-2006, 11:50 PM
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
This is bad. You're just stealing the blinds, it's ok to let it go when you get resistance. You can find better spots than this to get chips.
There's also absolutely nothing wrong with checking behind on that flop and giving yourself a chance to hit your overs + gutshot especially if you've been really active.
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#10
09-23-2006, 11:56 PM
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Re: Only a moron would call his stack off on AT high. stars satellite
Good discussion, i'll post the results
SB showed QsJs. Turn: Td River: Kc I may have won the hand but im really not sure i made the correct play. I think a lot of your arguements are very valid.
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