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#1
09-18-2006, 07:13 PM
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Homefield points (long rambling)
I'm not much of a gambler but I play one on the internet. Is homefield worked into the point spread differently for each team, or is it mostly uniform across the board?
I ask this because my casual observation over the years is that most people don't understand "homefield advantage" in terms of the relative advantage rather than "how good are this team's players" and I wonder if this causes Vegas to adjust their lines properly. Example, I keep hearing USC has a great home record the last few years, but their homefield sucks as far as how much of an advantage it is, right? John Saunders made a mocking comment towards the Carrier Dome during the Iowa game along the lines of "Yeah it's a tough place to play basketball maybe". But all things being equal, the facility is a bigger advantage for the home team in football than hoops. Obviously all things haven't been equal since McNabb graduated and the talent level of the program went to hell. In the NFL, it has been my casual observation over the years that the Colts HFA is grossly overrated and I think this is primarily attributed to the Foxboro playoff disasters. This is a compliment in many ways since they've really been a fantastic road team recently. Since Manning has been their QB, how many times have they won a game they shouldn't at home or lost one they shouldn't on the road? Rather than asking to take my word for it, I decided to do some research and it turns out I'm correct: They're 24-8 at home, 24-8 on the road since 2002, with 2 of those road losses coming in throwaway losses where they didn't try at the end of the year. These are straight up #'s of course, but does that really matter? Seems like a decent enough sample to strongly suggest it doesn't matter that much where they play. I don't understand why they're -9 vs. Jax next week (especially if it would only be -3 in Jax? Or would it be more than that?). Without looking up the figures I'd say there has been almost no HFA for every team in the NFC South as well. Are there less than 3 points given to these teams at home and more than 3 for teams like KC & Denver? Sorry if this is long and/or dumb, but i've wondered this for a while. 
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#2
09-18-2006, 07:14 PM
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Re: Homefield points (long rambling)
yeah...it adjusts, but it's worth 3 points on average in college football for example. At most, an extra special homefield is only worth 2-3 more points than a crummy one.
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#4
09-18-2006, 07:26 PM
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Re: Homefield points (long rambling)
Universally excepted as minus and extra 3 pts if at home but I am sure some teams get a little more I can't imagine home field account for more then 4 1/2 pts in a spread. However, the question "does vegas take this into account"? is an easy one. YES. They take everything into account anything you might know that you think gives you an edge is already known by linemakers and has already been factored into the spread which is why there so good....god damn bastards.
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#5
09-18-2006, 07:27 PM
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Re: Homefield points (long rambling)
[ QUOTE ]
Universally excepted as minus and extra 3 pts if at home but I am sure some teams get a little more I can't imagine home field account for more then 4 1/2 pts in a spread. However, the question "does vegas take this into account"? is an easy one. YES. They take everything into account anything you might know that you think gives you an edge is already known by linemakers and has already been factored into the spread which is why there so good....god damn bastards. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you even post?
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#6
09-18-2006, 07:42 PM
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Re: Homefield points (long rambling)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Universally excepted as minus and extra 3 pts if at home but I am sure some teams get a little more I can't imagine home field account for more then 4 1/2 pts in a spread. However, the question "does vegas take this into account"? is an easy one. YES. They take everything into account anything you might know that you think gives you an edge is already known by linemakers and has already been factored into the spread which is why there so good....god damn bastards. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you even post? [/ QUOTE ] The dude asked a question and I gave my opinion.
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