bottom set, call-off?

[snugglez88]

This hand requires some background, villain is donk_on_tilt, a fairly loose, very aggressive opponent, we also talk on AIM I know that he doesn't limp 75 here, he could have suited big cards, AA (although probably not), top two pair is possible, or a set

is this a call or a fold?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO ($1626.45)
Button ($2085.72)
SB ($9694.72)
BB ($4900)
UTG ($5321)
UTG+1 ($4732)
UTG+2 ($6964.38)
MP1 ($5522.02)
MP2 ($3575)
Hero ($7541)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $50. SB posts a blind of $25.
UTG calls $50, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $50, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($250) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $225</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $675</font>, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2000</font>, Hero calls $6816 (All-In), UTG calls $3271 (All-In).

Turn: ($13012) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($13012) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $13012

[CamelZoo]

not familiar w/villain, but 5 way he has to know missed overpair lrr is no good on this flop, so i'm ruling TT-AA out of his range.

if his range excludes T7/75 hands UTG his range will be 88,99,combo draw,A9s,Axs. he is not repopping with 77 or a bluff, and i would weigh his range more towards the 88/99 range.

i am guessing that the size of his flop 3bet commits him (is he really folding with 40% of his stack in?) and this will be AhXh more often than a JTs/T9s/97s-type combo draw if he is willing to commit himself here (awkward, but possible) against an opponent in an unraised pot who obviously likes his hand. if he is skilled i don't see why he'd be 3 betting two overcard hearts without the Ah.

i don't have pokerstove here but my math should be close enough:
88/99- 1 out
JTs- ahead 60/40
A9s-ahead 70/30
97s-ahead 55/45

this is not including overpairs and made straights (you're behind 65/35), so with his range weighted towards set over set and with his committing, &lt; pot-sized 3 bet, i think you are behind and he is welcoming a call or push.

i'd fold - but in the moment it would be a difficult one.

[alphatmw]

he doesn't limp 75, but does he limp T9, 98, 87?

[snugglez88]

yes