Confused about what to do on this river with JJ

A43Braun · #1 09-10-2006, 02:41 PM

Villain is 60/8/0.85 over 85 hands. I've cbet into him several times, and the last few times, he's woken up a little, calling the flop cbet, but insta-folding on the turn if i fire a second barrel.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $10.60
CO: $87.51
Button: $167.49
Hero: $77.35
BB: $25.35

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises to $2.75, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($16, 2 players)
Hero bets $14.5, Button calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($45, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $15, Hero?

Results:
Final pot: $75
Hero balance 40.35 lost 37 Js Jd 
Button balance 202.99 bet 37 collected 72.50 net 35.50 3c Qc

Shaddux · #2 09-10-2006, 02:44 PM

call

Al_Money · #3 09-10-2006, 02:46 PM

Well, we aren't folding because this is such a small bet. Raising wouldn't be very smart, so it looks like a call.

MrMxyztplk · #4 09-10-2006, 02:46 PM

Don't post those results. Just knowing you lost adds too much bias (even though we can half-assume it).

I think, vs. a .85 AF villain, that this river is a fold. Villains like this DO NOT stick around this long with nothing only to bluff or bet weak hands on the river.

tubasteve · #5 09-10-2006, 03:36 PM

this is a really easy river call getting 4-1

MrMxyztplk · #6 09-10-2006, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is a really easy river call getting 4-1

[/ QUOTE ]

How? What does an .85 AF Villain bet 1/3 pot with that JJ could beat?? Maybe if his W$SD was 20% I'd call, but otherwise this seems like a clear fold to me.