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#1
09-05-2006, 06:29 AM
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River scenario as the aggressor
Playing 3-6 at Stars last night. My limit game is fairly rusty.
UTG raises. I am next to act with something and threebet. My read on UTG is pretty limited. I've seen him show aggression, and I haven't seen him spew, but that's about all that I know. The other players fold and he calls. Flop is 853 rainbow. He check-calls. Turn is 5. He check-calls. River is 2. He checks. Anything beating QQ certainly gets more bets in, and even QQ/JJ/TT should be discounted quite a bit (as in, QQ should be quite unlikely, JJ somewhat unlikely, TT meh). So his hand range overall is pretty weak. Suppose that I've misclicked preflop and there is absolutely no chance that my hand is good. Do I have a profitable bluff? If so, what is the strongest hand that I should bluff with? What is the weakest hand I should value bet? Is there a middle ground of hands that I just showdown? If those questions are too much, then I'll just cut to the chase: I bet with a hand that I thought was worth a bluff, but afterwards I felt that it was a mistake because quite a few of the hands that would fold were hands that I beat. I think I'll get the best responses if I don't reveal my hand yet, but I will post it if requested. 
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#2
09-05-2006, 06:40 AM
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Re: River scenario as the aggressor
i think it is right to bet every hand here. pocket pairs above 77 and AKo for value and everything else as bluff/semibluff. every "misclick" (like QT/T9) should bet.
if he is shows down more than 40% you should check behind w/ every hand less than A-high b/c you have no folding equity.
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#3
09-05-2006, 02:28 PM
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Re: River scenario as the aggressor
So trying it this way isn't getting much response...
I had AJs. I bet the river. Good, bad, or ugly? FWIW, pf wasn't quite a misclick, but I thought I was openraising. Normally I muck it against an UTG raise... but some of you will probably say threebetting is fine.
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#5
09-05-2006, 04:32 PM
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Re: River scenario as the aggressor
IMO this is a terrible place for a bluff as villain seems showdown bound. after just reading the hand I immediately started considering whether or not you should value bet with AK as I thought that was the direction you were going. I think it's very close for AK, but I think betting with AJo is pretty bad (most of the AK value comes from Ax calls). I think it's rare that better hands than AJo will fold. check behind, you might be good.
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