Tough fold with over pair

hedgetop · #1 08-15-2006, 03:36 PM

MP is 42/29/0.92 and had made a few obscure semi-bluff riases against me, Button is 41/20/1.56 and had jsut played an AQ vs me very passively.

I find it highly unlikely that these two would play overcards like this, and the button 3-bet indicates to me real strength... would you take a different line here?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, Button caps, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Button 3-bets, Hero folds, MP calls.

The Bryce · #2 08-15-2006, 03:42 PM

Not so tough. Looks fine.

gehrig · #3 08-15-2006, 03:47 PM

whats the point of leading the flop

Keepitsimple · #4 08-15-2006, 03:51 PM

I dont think its that bad actually but I would probably not be able to do it at the table.

Is the game playing fast? Ie would button be aggressive enough to 3-bet flop to try to force out your assumed overs with his overs/99-TT? Or will he fold?

I think most midlimit games are playing this fast so I like a cap. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nate tha\\\' Great · #5 08-15-2006, 04:02 PM

I'm not ready to fold my overpair against these two douchebags.

The Bryce · #6 08-15-2006, 04:03 PM

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whats the point of leading the flop

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Leading the flop here is great. The way his opponents' ranges are distributed a check-raise is too much, but he still wants to sieze the initiative somewhere so he can value bet the big street if he's best. If he's ahead he doesn't really care about knocking MP out since he can't have more than a 3 outer and might sometimes be dead (he'll be sharing some of his outs with BTN).

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not ready to fold my overpair against these two douchebags.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised. They need to be FOS quite often to make me want to put another 3-3.5BB into this pot with a two outer. I would call down with QQ.

gehrig · #7 08-15-2006, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats the point of leading the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading the flop here is great. The way his opponents' ranges are distributed a check-raise is too much

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if your hand is good enough to want to lead and put in one bet as a favorite or two as a dog then you should c/r to put in two bets as a favorite or three as a dog with the added benefit of putting pressure on the guy in the middle.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #8 08-15-2006, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
whats the point of leading the flop

[/ QUOTE ] I dont see the point in leading the flop either.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #9 08-15-2006, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats the point of leading the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading the flop here is great. The way his opponents' ranges are distributed a check-raise is too much

[/ QUOTE ]
if your hand is good enough to want to lead and put in one bet as a favorite or two as a dog then you should c/r to put in two bets as a favorite or three as a dog with the added benefit of putting pressure on the guy in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%.

The Bryce · #10 08-15-2006, 04:25 PM

Sensible thinking, but incorrect (though this is a pretty thin point). The difference between what we win when we're best if the action is bet bet check (we usually get stiffed a BB or two) is much bigger than the difference between what we lose if we're behind and the action goes bet-raise, call, call than if we just called down (we only lose an extra SB). The thing is, we should expect to be losing a bit more often that we're winning here, so while we need the initiative to make sure the end bets go in we want to do it as cheaply as possible. Also, if we're lucky, MP might raise with a worse hand and protect ours if we're best (whereas, like I said before, using BTN to protect against MP when we're best isn't a big deal; it's possible for BTN to have a lot of outs if we're ahead, but it's almost impossible for MP to have many outs if we're ahead).

Incidently, I would c/r with QQ too (and just donk JJ).