2/4 AA Turn Donk Bet

Ricks · #1 08-13-2006, 03:01 PM

I am fairly new to the table and so is MP3. He posted in the BB at the beginning of this orbit and the only thing I have seen him do is CC in UTG+1. He then folded on the turn. The others have done nothing remarkable.

BB 40/2/5/ 300 hands
UTG 28/4/1.5 70 hands
MP3 no stats have come up on him

MP3 donks into me after the board pairs on the turn. Should I pop it or should I fear this bet and just call?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 4 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 bets, Hero?

Fat Nicky · #2 08-13-2006, 03:07 PM

Easy raise. He could have an 8 and was waiting for a safe turn or he could have picked up a flush draw or something like a pair + a flush draw. If he somehow had a 5, he prob would have went for a check/raise.

shark6 · #3 08-13-2006, 04:33 PM

Raise, you could be ahead and I really don't want BB and UTG sticking around with their draws to see the river. What you do next depends on what happens after you raise.

Clover362 · #4 08-13-2006, 04:38 PM

This is a time for a raise not only for value (as i believe you're still way ahead), but you have to drive out anyone who picked up a flush draw and it is unlikely that anyone has a five.

ncboiler · #5 08-13-2006, 04:39 PM

Raise.

dchz · #6 08-13-2006, 06:22 PM

how often do you think this is a pocket pair not lettting you see a free card? i think a raise is easily +EV

numbnuts007 · #7 08-13-2006, 07:01 PM

I like a raise here, i'm putting him on a middle pocket pair or possibly a pair of 8's and doesn't want to give a free card. He could have trips or be waiting to pop a set but I don't think it's likely and think you're okay to put in a raise. If he 3-bets it i think i'm calling down in the event that he really likes his 99-JJ.

Ricks · #8 08-13-2006, 09:39 PM

Thanks for all the replies. There seems to be no doubt about this one.

GMan42 · #9 08-13-2006, 11:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a time for a raise not only for value (as i believe you're still way ahead), but you have to charge anyone who picked up a flush draw and it is unlikely that anyone has a five.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Raising is good, but folding out a flush draw is unrealistic. Charge 'em the max to draw, though.

phosix · #10 08-14-2006, 02:59 AM

if hes a player likey to have and 8 in that position why couldnt he just as easily have a 5????? not to say a raise is a bad idea.
but it looks like he isnt scared of a feild of 4 with 2 others giving action.
not to mention if the flush draw didnt hit the flop chances are no one is on it, given the action. i might just go for overcalls