Leak Fixing - Hypothetical 99 at the 16s (long)

[Hollandicus]

Trying to work on some mid-game leaks and would appreciate feedback on the following. Fully understand that in 'real life' these decisions are situational / read dependant - what I am trying to do with this excercise is to get beneath the surface of a common situation...

Specific scenario is with 99 in MP with the BB at 100, I raise to 300, button flat calls and blinds fold. To simplify i have assumed even stacks of 2000 for the 2 players. The first decision would thus be whether to cBet the flop - assuming that in order for this to be profitable with a half-pot bet I would need to win >33%

So, using Pokerstove for possible ranges here are the %'s...

His range = Any Pair, A6o+, A4s+, any 2 pics + j10s+ (using estimate of 30% pair / 50% ace-x / 20% overs)

Equity - preflop = 58.2%

Rainbow Flop with a non-ace overcard = 59.6%
Rainbow flop with an Ace = 39.6%
Rainbow flop with 2 non-Ace overcards = 49%
Rainbow flop with Ace + other overcard = 30.6%
Rainbow, all undercards = 68.1%
2 suit Flop with a non-ace overcard = 57.4%
2 suit flop with ace = 38.2%
2 suit flop with a + other ocard = 29.2%
2 suit flop with 2 non a ocards = 47.6%
2 suit all under = 67.4%
Montone flop with a non ace overcard = 46%
Monotone flop with an ace = 32.8%
monotone flop with 2 non ace overcard = 42.2%
Monotone flop with ace + other overcards = 25%
Mon flop with 1 non A overcard = 48.2%
mon all under = 66.6%
(3 overcards not included - assuming a check / fold here).

So far so good, it seems that an Ace would be a scare card (no suprise against most 16's villans) but a little suprisingly 2 non-ace overcards should not deter me.

If villan raises the flop I am mostly done with the hand so the next part focuses on firing the second barrel on the turn when called - this assumes a 'safe' turn card.

Key would appear to be deciding what % of the time I am ahead when called. To simplify I will take the following assumptions.
- Rule out an overpair pre (could be here but to simplify I will assume 1010+ would have raised either preflop or on the flop).
- Set should have raised the flop but will assign this a small probability anyway (if 30% of hands were pairs and 15% turn into a set then P= 4.5% so 5% for ease)
- Draws, flush - assume villans cards will be suited 25% if we get a 2 suit board suit will match 25% (for simplicity), flush draw P= 6%. Straight, since his range included high cards then the 2 high-card flops which did not pair his cards might leave a straight draw will give this a low probability of 5% (say 20% of range pre divided by half the flops and hit / miss half the time).
- Paired one of the high cards, higher probability for this if called going to give this 50% on a 2 high card flop without the Ace (so 25% for one) in turn we could say 25% for the higher and 25% for the lower.
- Hit the Ace. On Ace high flops this is an exteremely likely scenario. Going to give this 50%, a 10% probability that the kicker paired and it is <9.
- Underpairs - if we say 30% of preflop calls are with a pair then the top half (55-88) call my cBet then 15% on any flop.
- Missed overs / missed Ace, likely but would change % probability depending on flop texture.

So, the question is when should I fire a second barrel which would effectively committ me to the pot?
- Ace high flop = probably never, defintley never with another high card present.
- 2 high card flop = 11% draw / 15% underpair / 5% set / 50% paired high card (25/25 each) / 19% ace-high or nothing. Well here is a real question, If villan folds draws, underpairs and nothing and 50% of the time folds the lower paired high card then I *could* be 57.5% to win here, enough equity to risk my tourney? not for me, check / fold.
- Flop with one higher card, 11% draw / 15% underpair / 5% set / 33% paired the high card / 25% 'missed overs' / 10% paired kicker <9. ok, now I could have as much as 63% equity, with the additional assumtion that villan may fold the TP a small % of the time (5-10%) I have a case for firing away.
- Undercards flop. 11% draw / 15% underpair / 5% set / 50% missed overs / 19% paired kicker <9. Easy 2nd barrel.

Bit longer than intended... feedback very much appreciated.

Cheers,

[Hand_Crasher]

Nice man, that's exactly what I do, just firing the second barel if one overcard or just undercards.